Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Top hits spot: Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jesús Luzardo. The righty is hitting .457 H/PA against lefties this year — and .400 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Jesús Luzardo has been giving up plenty to lefties lately — .243 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 15 career PA against Jesús Luzardo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (93) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.160), hot bat.
- Cole Young (SEA) (87) vs RHP Brandon Young: a solid bat at .245 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (87) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a solid bat at .245 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (87) vs RHP Davis Martin: a solid bat at .245 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (85) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .288 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (85) vs LHP Framber Valdez: a strong bat at .269 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hot bat.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (82) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: a strong bat at .252 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
- RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM).
- RHP Kodai Senga has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Blake Dunn (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .457 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .277 against lefties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Cole Young (SEA), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Alec Burleson (STL), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Andrew Vaughn (MIL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.