Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, March 27, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Robbie Ray. The righty is going deep on — HR/PA against lefties this year, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Robbie Ray has been thin against lefties lately — — home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .222 in 18 career PA against Robbie Ray. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (84) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: big-time bat at .058 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (70) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: big-time bat at .051 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (67) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: big-time bat at .050 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Brent Rooker (ATH) (48) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: real bat at .049 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (47) vs LHP Yusei Kikuchi: solid bat at .040 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (45) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: real bat at .048 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (44) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: real bat at .046 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Kerry Carpenter (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.