Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 91, facing RHP Dylan Cease. The lefty is going deep on .090 HR/PA against righties this year — and .056 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Dylan Cease has been thin against righties lately — — home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .231 in 13 career PA against Dylan Cease. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (85) vs RHP Dustin May: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (81) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (80) vs LHP Robert Gasser: big-time bat at .051 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- James Wood (WSH) (77) vs RHP Adrian Houser: real bat at .042 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.030).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (73) vs RHP Troy Melton: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (72) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (67) vs RHP Colin Rea: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .100 against lefties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .062 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.