Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, June 8, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is going deep on .067 HR/PA against righties this year — and .102 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .077 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Grayson Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (79) vs LHP Kyle Harrison: real bat at .049 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
- James Wood (WSH) (77) vs RHP Logan Webb: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (75) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (71) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: solid bat at .040 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.105), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (70) vs RHP Gavin Williams: real bat at .044 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (57) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.059).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (55) vs LHP Connelly Early: solid bat at .039 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.051).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .091 against lefties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .047 against lefties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.