Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP José Soriano. The lefty is going deep on .035 HR/PA against righties this year — and .056 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And José Soriano has been mostly containing righties lately — .033 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against José Soriano, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (84) vs LHP Tyler Gilbert: real bat at .047 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (81) vs RHP Mike Burrows: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.086), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (80) vs LHP Gage Jump: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (79) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077), due to bounce back.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (76) vs RHP Aaron Nola: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- James Wood (WSH) (69) vs RHP Michael Soroka: real bat at .042 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (67) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: real bat at .041 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.118), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .035 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .041 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.