Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, April 2, 2026
Top home runs spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Robbie Ray. The lefty is going deep on .100 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .100 over the last two weeks, solid bat that turns into a home run in about 4% of his trips. And Robbie Ray has been keeping the ball in the park against lefties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .067 in 15 career PA against Robbie Ray, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (79) vs RHP Reynaldo López: solid bat at .039 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (78) vs LHP David Peterson: solid bat at .035 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (73) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: solid bat at .038 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (68) vs RHP Taj Bradley: solid bat at .036 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (66) vs LHP Cole Ragans: solid bat at .036 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071), due to bounce back.
- Jose Fernandez (AZ) (66) vs RHP Reynaldo López: solid bat at .039 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) (63) vs LHP Robbie Ray: solid bat at .035 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .105 against righties this year.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.