Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, April 23, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. The righty is going deep on .139 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .100 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Payton Tolle has been thin against lefties lately — — home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Payton Tolle, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs RHP Logan Webb: big-time bat at .051 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.057).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (87) vs RHP Joe Ryan: real bat at .045 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (82) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (75) vs RHP Christian Scott: real bat at .048 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (71) vs RHP Michael Soroka: real bat at .044 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043), hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (65) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: real bat at .046 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.031).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (62) vs RHP Tyler Glasnow: solid bat at .039 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .139 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .037 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .092 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.