Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 6, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jack Kochanowicz. The lefty is going deep on .036 HR/PA against righties this year — and .053 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Jack Kochanowicz has been homer-prone to righties lately — .040 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Jack Kochanowicz too — .333 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (82) vs LHP Brandon Eisert: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (77) vs RHP Griffin Canning: real bat at .049 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.125).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (74) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (68) vs RHP Andrew Painter: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (62) vs RHP Lake Bachar: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (62) vs RHP Braydon Fisher: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (62) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .036 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year.
- Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Luke Raley (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.