‹ Earned Runs · Sunday, July 5, 2026
PHI @ KC Earned Runs matchups · Sunday, July 5, 2026
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
vs
3:00 PM EDT
KC
Kansas City Royals
◆ Kauffman StadiumElevation 856 ftCenter Field 410 ft
Aaron Nola · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.1%
vs RHB13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
KC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Carter Jensen (L)13.3%3.0 PA
2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)13.2%3.0 PA
3Lane Thomas (R)9.5%3.0 PA
4Jac Caglianone (L)13.4%3.0 PA
5Nick Loftin (R)13.0%2.3 PA
6Starling Marte (R)12.2%2.0 PA
7Isaac Collins (L)10.9%2.0 PA
8Michael Massey (L)10.5%2.0 PA
9Tyler Tolbert (R)17.0%2.0 PA
Luinder Avila · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.0%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.7 BF
Expected batters faced18.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
PHI lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Trea Turner (R)16.4%2.7 PA
2Kyle Schwarber (L)15.1%2.0 PA
3Bryce Harper (L)16.6%2.0 PA
4Brandon Marsh (L)16.0%2.0 PA
5Alec Bohm (R)11.5%2.0 PA
6Bryson Stott (L)13.1%2.0 PA
7J.T. Realmuto (R)12.2%2.0 PA
8Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0 PA
9Justin Crawford (L)9.1%2.0 PA