MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Our top 5 starts went 3/4 (75%) on the mark, against 53% on the season.

Top 5
3/475%
season 53%
Top 10
8/989%
season 52%
Full slate
17/2959%
season 50%

Top call Ranger Suarez came through. Gage Jump didn't.

Final · 10–9NYMNYMawayATLATLhomeTop matchup44Final · 11–5PITPITawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup39Final · 2–3BALBALawayCINCINhomeTop matchup29Final · 6–1MINMINawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup34Final · 7–6CWSCWSawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup100Final · 4–6STLSTLawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup35Final · 2–5PHIPHIawayKCKChomeTop matchup19Final · 0–2TBTBawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup100Final · 6–3DETDETawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup72Final · 3–2MILMILawayAZAZhomeTop matchup100Final · 6–7SFSFawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup40Final · 9–8MIAMIAawayATHATHhomeTop matchup98Final · 0–4TORTORawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup87Final · 5–2SDSDawayLADLADhomeTop matchup53Final · 7–5BOSBOSawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup100
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)12.4%3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)11.2%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)10.7%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)10.9%3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)11.6%2.7
7. Jose Siri (R)12.8%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.8%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)10.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-170+128

We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.3 BF

Expected batters faced13.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)13.5%2.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.4%2.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)10.3%2.0
4. Christian Walker (R)10.7%2.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)10.6%1.3
6. Cam Smith (R)11.0%1.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)11.9%1.0
8. Nick Allen (R)11.0%1.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)10.8%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
DKDraftKings+124-165

We project 1.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Mason Englert's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload8.7 BF

Expected batters faced8.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection0.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)8.9%1.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L)9.9%1.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)10.1%1.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)9.0%1.0
5. Gabriel Arias (R)12.1%1.0
6. Cooper Ingle (L)11.7%1.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)12.7%1.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)11.2%1.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)11.0%0.7

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Murphy's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Turang (L)12.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.1%3.0
3. Christian Yelich (L)11.9%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)13.1%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)10.0%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)10.0%2.6
7. Gary Sánchez (R)12.6%2.0
8. David Hamilton (L)12.5%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)9.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
DKDraftKings-130-102

We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.3%
vs RHB7.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)12.6%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.1%3.0
3. Liam Hicks (L)11.0%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R)12.6%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)9.7%2.9
6. Esteury Ruiz (R)13.9%2.0
7. Leo Jiménez (R)9.2%2.0
8. Jakob Marsee (L)12.7%2.0
9. Brian Navarreto (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+108-143
FANFanatics+110-155

We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.1%
vs RHB9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.2%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)14.5%3.0
3. Cal Raleigh (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)10.4%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)10.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)12.8%2.8
7. Mitch Garver (R)11.8%2.0
8. Colt Emerson (L)10.9%2.0
9. Victor Robles (R)11.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)11.0%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.0%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.9%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)9.1%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)11.4%2.2
6. Ernie Clement (R)10.2%2.0
7. Sean Keys (L)13.0%2.0
8. Luis Urías (R)10.9%2.0
9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)9.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+120-160

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB13.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.0 BF

Expected batters faced18.0
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)13.1%2.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.9%2.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)10.3%2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.8%2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)12.3%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)10.4%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)8.7%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-115
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics-125-115

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Johnson's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)9.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)14.1%3.0
3. Zack Gelof (R)13.4%3.0
4. Lawrence Butler (L)12.2%2.4
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)11.6%2.0
6. Carlos Cortes (L)10.6%2.0
7. Max Muncy (R)11.3%2.0
8. Jonah Heim (L)10.5%2.0
9. Brian Serven (R)9.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-118
DKDraftKings-117-113

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.4%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)13.0%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.3%2.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)8.9%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)12.0%2.0
7. Tim Tawa (R)9.6%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)9.0%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
DKDraftKings+109-145
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.6%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)12.4%3.0
2. Jake Burger (R)11.0%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.4%2.7
4. Ezequiel Duran (R)10.8%2.0
5. Evan Carter (L)11.8%2.0
6. Elias Díaz (R)10.6%2.0
7. Josh Smith (L)10.2%2.0
8. Cam Cauley (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+130
DKDraftKings-178+133

We project 1.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.5%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)13.0%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)11.1%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.5%2.6
4. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%2.0
5. Ty France (R)11.0%2.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)12.7%2.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.8%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)12.7%2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R)12.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+130
FANFanatics-185+130

We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Francisco Lindor (R)11.6%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)11.6%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)12.4%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)12.3%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)12.7%2.0
6. Tyrone Taylor (R)12.1%2.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)9.7%2.0
8. Luis Torrens (R)10.5%2.0
9. Brett Baty (L)12.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
DKDraftKings-134+101

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB13.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.2%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)14.5%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)15.0%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)12.2%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.6%2.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)14.9%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)11.6%2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L)10.3%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings-112-118

We project 2.9 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.0%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)12.9%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.0%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.6%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.4%2.7
6. Nick Gonzales (R)13.2%2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)13.8%2.0
8. Tyler Callihan (L)12.3%2.0
9. Jake Mangum (L)12.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+105-139

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)13.9%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)13.2%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.9%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)14.2%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.6%2.5
6. Colt Keith (L)12.7%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)10.1%2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R)10.5%2.0
9. James Outman (L)9.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-145
DKDraftKings+121-161
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate15.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.0%
vs RHB15.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)12.5%3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R)11.0%2.5
3. Heliot Ramos (R)12.0%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)14.1%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.8%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)11.1%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.1%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)11.1%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
DKDraftKings-101-131
FANFanatics-115-125

We project 2.9 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Gordon's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB15.0%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.5 BF

Expected batters faced17.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)14.8%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)14.0%2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)13.2%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)12.9%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)12.3%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.7%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)12.8%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)10.3%2.0
9. Bryan Torres (L)14.1%1.4

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
FANFanatics+120-170

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Javier Assad's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)12.8%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)13.8%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)10.1%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)11.0%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)10.8%3.0
6. Victor Caratini (R)9.6%2.2
7. Brooks Lee (R)8.9%2.0
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.0%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)10.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+135-175
DKDraftKings+127-169

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)13.3%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)16.5%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)13.8%3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)12.4%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)14.1%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)12.1%2.9
7. Austin Riley (R)10.3%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.4%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
DKDraftKings-105-126
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.9%
vs RHB13.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)12.4%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)13.0%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)14.8%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)13.1%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.5%3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)11.8%2.5
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)12.6%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)12.2%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)10.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
DKDraftKings-121-109
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)13.5%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)13.5%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)11.5%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)9.8%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)13.7%3.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)10.4%2.9
7. Noelvi Marte (R)11.5%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)10.8%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
FANFanatics-110-130

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)9.4%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R)11.2%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)12.9%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.2%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)14.4%3.0
6. Tyler O'Neill (R)12.9%2.4
7. Leody Taveras (R)8.0%2.0
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.6%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)9.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Lodolo's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.2%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)13.5%3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L)11.0%3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.2%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)12.0%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.5
7. Chase Meidroth (R)13.0%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)14.2%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
DKDraftKings+107-143
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.0%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.7 BF

Expected batters faced18.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)16.4%2.7
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)14.7%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)16.1%2.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)15.6%2.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)12.3%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)13.4%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)8.9%2.0
9. Garrett Stubbs (L)13.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
DKDraftKings-128-103

We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.6%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.6%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.6%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.7%3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)13.2%2.2
5. Michael Busch (L)9.2%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.2%2.0
7. Ian Happ (R)13.2%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)16.0%2.0
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)12.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
DKDraftKings-101-131

We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.1%
vs RHB13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)13.4%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)13.1%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)12.7%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)9.2%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)10.2%2.3
6. Salvador Perez (R)8.7%2.0
7. Josh Rojas (L)11.6%2.0
8. Kameron Misner (L)10.1%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)11.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
DKDraftKings-125-106
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)12.6%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.2%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.9%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)12.2%3.0
5. Teoscar Hernández (R)13.4%3.0
6. Alex Call (R)13.6%2.8
7. Miguel Rojas (R)13.6%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (R)10.5%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings-101-132

We project 3.4 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.5%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)15.5%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)14.3%3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L)10.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.0%3.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R)10.8%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)13.8%3.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)14.2%2.2
8. Austin Wells (L)10.2%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)10.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+105-140
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.4%
vs RHB8.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)16.6%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.1%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)12.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)14.1%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)13.3%3.0
6. Dylan Crews (R)11.3%2.5
7. José Tena (L)11.8%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.5%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-143+108
FANFanatics-155+110

We project 3.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays