Earned Runs Board · Today
Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 29 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Chris Murphy⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.8%
vs RHB 7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 8.7 BF Expected batters faced 8.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 0.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 8.9% 1.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L) 10.2% 1.0
3. Kyle Manzardo (L) 9.0% 1.0
4. Kahlil Watson (L) 11.7% 1.0
5. Brayan Rocchio (R) 11.6% 1.0
6. Cooper Ingle (L) 11.7% 1.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L) 12.7% 1.0
8. Austin Hedges (R) 11.1% 1.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 11.0% 0.7
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Chris Murphy's full player page → 2
Casey Mize⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.6%
vs RHB 10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.7 BF Expected batters faced 20.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joc Pederson (L) 13.0% 3.0
2. Josh Smith (L) 10.6% 3.0
3. Josh Jung (R) 11.2% 2.7
4. Brandon Nimmo (L) 10.9% 2.0
5. Alejandro Osuna (L) 10.0% 2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R) 11.2% 2.0
7. Evan Carter (L) 12.1% 2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R) 10.8% 2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 11.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Casey Mize's full player page → 3
Ranger Suarez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.7 BF Expected batters faced 23.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 12.2% 3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L) 13.4% 3.0
3. Denzer Guzman (R) 11.7% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 11.1% 3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R) 10.7% 3.0
6. Jo Adell (R) 11.6% 2.7
7. Jose Siri (R) 13.5% 2.0
8. Josh Lowe (L) 10.3% 2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 11.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ranger Suarez's full player page → 4
Eduardo Rodriguez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.2%
vs RHB 7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 11.6% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 14.1% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 11.8% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 12.3% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 10.0% 3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L) 10.0% 2.6
7. Sal Frelick (L) 9.7% 2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. David Hamilton (L) 12.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page → 5
Trey Yesavage⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.1%
vs RHB 9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 10.8% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 13.1% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 11.9% 3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L) 11.6% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 10.5% 3.0
6. Luke Raley (L) 10.9% 2.8
7. Cole Young (L) 12.2% 2.0
8. Victor Robles (R) 10.3% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 10.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Trey Yesavage's full player page → 6
Nick Lodolo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.4 BF Expected batters faced 23.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 9.4% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R) 10.1% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 13.0% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 11.3% 3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 8.8% 3.0
6. Colton Cowser (L) 9.7% 2.4
7. Leody Taveras (R) 8.0% 2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L) 11.8% 2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R) 9.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Nick Lodolo's full player page → 7
Ryan Johnson⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.1%
vs RHB 13.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.0 BF Expected batters faced 18.0
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Nate Eaton (R) 13.2% 2.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 11.1% 2.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 10.2% 2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 12.1% 2.0
5. Caleb Durbin (R) 13.3% 2.0
6. Romy Gonzalez (R) 10.4% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 10.7% 2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R) 9.0% 2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R) 8.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ryan Johnson's full player page → 8
Javier Assad⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 15.0%
vs RHB 9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 17.5 BF Expected batters faced 17.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 14.6% 2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 14.4% 2.0
3. Jordan Walker (R) 12.3% 2.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R) 15.6% 2.0
5. Alec Burleson (L) 13.2% 2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 13.1% 2.0
7. José Fermín (R) 10.5% 2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Nathan Church (L) 13.1% 1.4
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Javier Assad's full player page → 9
Martín Pérez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.2%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 7.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Francisco Lindor (R) 12.0% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 11.8% 3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 11.9% 3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Eric Wagaman (R) 12.1% 2.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R) 9.8% 2.0
7. Carson Benge (L) 13.0% 2.0
8. Tyrone Taylor (R) 11.5% 2.0
9. Brett Baty (L) 13.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Martín Pérez's full player page → 10
Ryan Weathers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 10.2% 3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R) 14.0% 3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L) 10.2% 3.0
4. Josh Bell (R) 10.3% 3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 10.9% 3.0
6. Brooks Lee (R) 9.1% 2.2
7. Ryan Kreidler (R) 11.2% 2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R) 10.6% 2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R) 11.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ryan Weathers's full player page → 11
Eury Pérez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.4%
vs RHB 11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.4 BF Expected batters faced 21.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Nick Kurtz (L) 14.2% 3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R) 11.1% 3.0
3. Lawrence Butler (L) 13.3% 3.0
4. Colby Thomas (R) 10.3% 2.4
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 11.7% 2.0
6. Carlos Cortes (L) 9.9% 2.0
7. Henry Bolte (R) 9.0% 2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L) 9.6% 2.0
9. Alika Williams (R) 14.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Eury Pérez's full player page → 12
Kyle Bradish⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.7%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.9 BF Expected batters faced 23.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (L) 13.8% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 12.6% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R) 10.0% 3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L) 10.8% 3.0
6. Spencer Steer (R) 13.2% 2.9
7. Jose Trevino (R) 10.4% 2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L) 10.3% 2.0
9. Matt McLain (R) 10.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kyle Bradish's full player page → 13
Emerson Hancock⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.0%
vs RHB 10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.2 BF Expected batters faced 22.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Nathan Lukes (L) 11.2% 3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 12.0% 3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 13.0% 3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L) 11.5% 3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R) 10.3% 2.2
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L) 11.7% 2.0
7. Sean Keys (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (L) 10.6% 2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L) 10.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Emerson Hancock's full player page → 14
Gage Jump⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.3%
vs RHB 7.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 10.8% 3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L) 9.5% 3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R) 12.6% 3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R) 12.6% 3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R) 12.2% 2.9
6. Griffin Conine (L) 12.3% 2.0
7. Owen Caissie (L) 9.8% 2.0
8. Jakob Marsee (L) 12.9% 2.0
9. Leo Jiménez (R) 9.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Gage Jump's full player page → 15
Cade Cavalli⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.0%
vs RHB 8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Konnor Griffin (R) 13.3% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 14.2% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 14.4% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 13.1% 2.7
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 12.8% 2.0
7. Jake Mangum (L) 11.6% 2.0
8. Tyler Callihan (L) 11.6% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 12.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cade Cavalli's full player page → 16
Kumar Rocker⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 14.1% 3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R) 13.7% 3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L) 11.5% 3.0
4. Riley Greene (L) 14.1% 3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R) 10.7% 2.5
6. Colt Keith (L) 12.3% 2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 10.4% 2.0
8. Ben Malgeri (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. James Outman (L) 10.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kumar Rocker's full player page → 17
Brandon Sproat⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.3%
vs RHB 12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.0 BF Expected batters faced 21.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 11.5% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 12.2% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 12.6% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 11.8% 2.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 8.9% 2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R) 11.3% 2.0
7. Ildemaro Vargas (L) 12.1% 2.0
8. LuJames Groover (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R) 12.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Sproat's full player page → 18
Peter Lambert⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.8%
vs RHB 13.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jonathan Aranda (L) 13.0% 3.0
2. Junior Caminero (R) 14.0% 3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L) 12.7% 3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Victor Mesa Jr. (L) 12.1% 3.0
6. Jonny DeLuca (R) 12.0% 2.5
7. Richie Palacios (L) 12.2% 2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L) 15.0% 2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L) 11.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Peter Lambert's full player page → 19
Tanner Bibee⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.5%
vs RHB 10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Miguel Vargas (R) 13.6% 3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R) 13.5% 3.0
3. Chase Meidroth (R) 13.1% 3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L) 12.1% 3.0
5. Junior Perez (R) 11.7% 3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L) 11.7% 2.5
7. Luisangel Acuña (R) 13.8% 2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L) 13.7% 2.0
9. Drew Romo (L) 10.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tanner Bibee's full player page → 20
Emmet Sheehan⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.5%
vs RHB 10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.6 BF Expected batters faced 20.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 13.4% 3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L) 11.4% 3.0
3. Manny Machado (R) 12.5% 2.6
4. Gavin Sheets (L) 12.6% 2.0
5. Ty France (R) 11.9% 2.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L) 12.7% 2.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 12.2% 2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L) 12.8% 2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Emmet Sheehan's full player page → 21
Luinder Avila⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.0%
vs RHB 10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 6.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.7 BF Expected batters faced 18.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 16.4% 2.7
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 15.1% 2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 16.6% 2.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L) 16.0% 2.0
5. Alec Bohm (R) 11.5% 2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L) 13.1% 2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R) 12.2% 2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L) 9.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Luinder Avila's full player page → 22
Nolan McLean⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.6%
vs RHB 11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.9 BF Expected batters faced 23.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Mauricio Dubón (R) 13.3% 3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L) 13.2% 3.0
3. Ozzie Albies (L) 16.2% 3.0
4. Matt Olson (L) 13.7% 3.0
5. Austin Riley (R) 9.7% 3.0
6. Michael Harris II (L) 11.3% 2.9
7. Eli White (R) 12.8% 2.0
8. Joey Bart (R) 11.0% 2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R) 15.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Nolan McLean's full player page → 23
Matthew Liberatore⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.6%
vs RHB 12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.2 BF Expected batters faced 21.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 11.6% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 9.3% 3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R) 13.2% 2.2
5. Ian Happ (R) 13.3% 2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 12.1% 2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L) 14.9% 2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R) 13.1% 2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R) 16.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Matthew Liberatore's full player page → 24
Tyler Mahle⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.9%
vs RHB 13.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 7.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Willi Castro (L) 12.2% 3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R) 14.8% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 14.8% 3.0
4. Tyler Freeman (R) 10.7% 3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (L) 11.7% 2.0
6. Jake McCarthy (L) 13.1% 2.0
7. Braxton Fulford (R) 14.6% 2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 10.9% 2.0
9. Troy Johnston (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tyler Mahle's full player page → 25
Tanner Gordon⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 15.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.0%
vs RHB 15.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.5 BF Expected batters faced 19.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Heliot Ramos (R) 12.1% 3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L) 12.4% 2.5
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 10.8% 2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 14.5% 2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 15.2% 2.0
6. Willy Adames (R) 11.6% 2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L) 11.2% 2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Eric Haase (R) 12.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tanner Gordon's full player page → 26
JP Sears⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.1%
vs RHB 13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 12.6% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 13.3% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 11.3% 3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 12.4% 3.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 14.8% 3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L) 12.5% 2.8
7. Teoscar Hernández (R) 13.5% 2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L) 13.6% 2.0
9. Alex Freeland (R) 10.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
JP Sears's full player page → 27
Joe Ryan⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.5%
vs RHB 10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 15.1% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 15.0% 3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L) 11.2% 3.0
4. Jasson Domínguez (L) 9.3% 3.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R) 11.5% 3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 14.9% 3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L) 11.4% 2.2
8. Max Schuemann (R) 13.7% 2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R) 11.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Joe Ryan's full player page → 28
Aaron Nola⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.1%
vs RHB 13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.3 BF Expected batters faced 22.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 13.3% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 13.2% 3.0
3. Lane Thomas (R) 9.5% 3.0
4. Jac Caglianone (L) 13.4% 3.0
5. Nick Loftin (R) 13.0% 2.3
6. Starling Marte (R) 12.2% 2.0
7. Isaac Collins (L) 10.9% 2.0
8. Michael Massey (L) 10.5% 2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R) 17.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Aaron Nola's full player page → 29
Bubba Chandler⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.4%
vs RHB 7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 16.3% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 16.7% 3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R) 12.6% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 14.6% 3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L) 13.5% 3.0
6. Dylan Crews (R) 11.6% 2.5
7. José Tena (L) 12.0% 2.0
8. Drew Millas (L) 11.9% 2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L) 11.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bubba Chandler's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026 Chris Murphy (CWS) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.9 ER, with Casey Mize (DET) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Chris Murphy Chris Murphy (CWS) tops the Sunday, July 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.9 ER vs CLE. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Casey Mize (DET) (65) — about 1.9 ER vs TEX. Ranger Suarez (BOS) (59) — about 2.1 ER vs LAA. Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) (58) — about 2.1 ER vs MIL. Trey Yesavage (TOR) (53) — about 2.2 ER vs SEA. Nick Lodolo (CIN) (52) — about 2.2 ER vs BAL. How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)? Chris Murphy (CWS) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 0.9 ER against CLE.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Sunday, July 5, 2026: Chris Murphy (~0.9 ER), Casey Mize (~1.9 ER), Ranger Suarez (~2.1 ER), Eduardo Rodriguez (~2.1 ER), Trey Yesavage (~2.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
