MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Earned Runs · Sunday, July 5, 2026

STL @ CHC Earned Runs matchups · Sunday, July 5, 2026

STL
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
vs
2:30 PM EDT
CHC
Chicago Cubs
CHC
Wrigley FieldElevation 595 ftCenter Field 400 ft

STL Matthew Liberatore · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.6%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →
CHC lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Alex Bregman (R)11.6%3.0 PA
3Michael Busch (L)9.3%3.0 PA
4Seiya Suzuki (R)13.2%2.2 PA
5Ian Happ (R)13.3%2.0 PA
6Nico Hoerner (R)12.1%2.0 PA
7Michael Conforto (L)14.9%2.0 PA
8Carson Kelly (R)13.1%2.0 PA
9Dansby Swanson (R)16.0%2.0 PA

CHC Javier Assad · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB15.0%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.5 BF

Expected batters faced17.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Javier Assad's full player page →
STL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1JJ Wetherholt (L)14.6%2.0 PA
2Iván Herrera (R)14.4%2.0 PA
3Jordan Walker (R)12.3%2.0 PA
4Nelson Velázquez (R)15.6%2.0 PA
5Alec Burleson (L)13.2%2.0 PA
6Masyn Winn (R)13.1%2.0 PA
7José Fermín (R)10.5%2.0 PA
8Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Nathan Church (L)13.1%1.4 PA