LAD @ PIT Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, June 11, 2026

LAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

8–6

Final

PIT

Pittsburgh Pirates

◆ PNC ParkElevation 780 ftCenter Field 399 ft☀ 72°F OvercastWind 11 mph, Out To LF

Justin Wrobleski · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.5 BF

Expected batters faced25.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

PIT lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA

1Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0 PA

2Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0 PA

3Bryan Reynolds (R)11.7%3.0 PA

4Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%3.0 PA

5Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0 PA

6Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%3.0 PA

7Jake Mangum (R)11.7%3.0 PA

8Rafael Flores Jr. (R)11.7%2.5 PA

9Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0 PA

Mitch Keller · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

LAD lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0 PA

2Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0 PA

3Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0 PA

4Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0 PA

5Max Muncy (L)11.7%3.0 PA

6Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.5 PA

7Ryan Ward (L)11.7%2.0 PA

8Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0 PA

9Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0 PA