Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, June 11, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 11, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.2 BF
Expected batters faced16.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%2.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%2.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%2.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%2.0
5. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%2.0
6. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
7. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
8. Aramis Garcia (R)11.7%1.2
9. Jorge Barrosa (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.5 BF
Expected batters faced18.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%2.5
2. Randal Grichuk (R)11.7%2.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%2.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%2.0
5. Everson Pereira (R)11.7%2.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)11.7%2.0
7. Edgar Quero (R)11.7%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.9 BF
Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%2.9
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%2.0
4. Ian Happ (L)11.7%2.0
5. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.0
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)11.7%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.3 BF
Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%2.3
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%2.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
8. Francisco Alvarez (R)11.7%2.0
9. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.5 BF
Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%2.5
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%2.9
5. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
6. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.0
7. Kameron Misner (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)11.7%2.5
6. Jorge Mateo (R)11.7%2.0
7. Eli White (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sandy León (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0
5. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%2.5
6. Royce Lewis (R)11.7%2.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%2.0
9. Austin Martin (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Edouard Julien (L)11.7%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.7
6. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%2.9
6. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
8. Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%3.0
6. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%2.3
7. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)11.7%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.5
7. Ryan Ward (L)11.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.7%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)11.7%2.9
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)11.7%3.0
2. Corey Seager (L)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jake Burger (R)11.7%3.0
7. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.8
8. Elias Díaz (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.3 BF
Expected batters faced25.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)11.7%3.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%3.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.3
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)11.7%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%3.0
5. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
6. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%3.0
7. Jake Mangum (R)11.7%3.0
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R)11.7%2.5
9. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
12 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Bryan WooP
SEA@BAL· proj #10
7ERFinal
T1
Zebby MatthewsP
MIN@DET· proj #13
7ERFinal
3
Ryan FeltnerP
COLvsCHC· proj #3
6ERFinal
4
Kyle BradishP
BALvsSEA· proj #11
5ERFinal
T4
Mitch KellerP
PITvsLAD· proj #12
5ERFinal
6
Christian ScottP
NYMvsSTL· proj #5
4ERFinal
T6
Michael WachaP
KCvsTEX· proj #14
4ERFinal
T6
Justin WrobleskiP
LAD@PIT· proj #16
4ERFinal
9
Hunter DobbinsP
STL@NYM· proj #4
3ERFinal
10
Kumar RockerP
TEX@KC· proj #6
2ERFinal
T10
Edward CabreraP
CHC@COL· proj #9
2ERFinal
T10
Merrill KellyP
AZ@MIA· proj #15
2ERFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 11, 2026
Tyler Phillips (MIA) is the top earned runs spot on the Thursday, June 11, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER, with Martín Pérez (ATL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Tyler Phillips
Tyler Phillips (MIA) tops the Thursday, June 11, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER vs AZ. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Martín Pérez (ATL) (76) — about 2.1 ER vs CWS.
Ryan Feltner (COL) (60) — about 2.2 ER vs CHC.
Hunter Dobbins (STL) (55) — about 2.3 ER vs NYM.
Christian Scott (NYM) (54) — about 2.3 ER vs STL.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) (38) — about 2.5 ER vs KC.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 3.0 ER. Tyler Phillips finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Thursday, June 11, 2026)?
Tyler Phillips (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER against AZ.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, June 11, 2026: Tyler Phillips (~1.8 ER), Martín Pérez (~2.1 ER), Ryan Feltner (~2.2 ER), Hunter Dobbins (~2.3 ER), Christian Scott (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
