ATL @ NYM Earned Runs matchups · Friday, June 12, 2026

ATL

Atlanta Braves

5–7

Final

NYM

New York Mets

◆ Citi FieldElevation 10 ftCenter Field 408 ft☀ 76°F Partly CloudyWind 5 mph, Out To RF

Spencer Strider · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

NYM lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Carson Benge (L)12.8%3.0 PA

2Bo Bichette (R)10.5%3.0 PA

3Juan Soto (L)13.4%3.0 PA

4Jared Young (L)12.8%2.7 PA

5A.J. Ewing (L)13.5%2.0 PA

6Marcus Semien (R)11.8%2.0 PA

7Brett Baty (L)10.0%2.0 PA

8MJ Melendez (L)10.5%2.0 PA

9Luis Torrens (R)12.2%2.0 PA

Nolan McLean · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

ATL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Mauricio Dubón (R)12.5%3.0 PA

2Michael Harris II (L)12.4%3.0 PA

3Matt Olson (L)14.9%3.0 PA

4Ozzie Albies (L)14.1%3.0 PA

5Dominic Smith (L)13.7%3.0 PA

6Austin Riley (R)11.3%2.1 PA

7Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.0%2.0 PA

8Ha-Seong Kim (R)10.9%2.0 PA

9Austin Wynns (R)10.0%2.0 PA