Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, June 12, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Friday, June 12, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.5 BF
Expected batters faced10.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.2%2.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.4%1.4
3. Brice Turang (L)11.2%1.0
4. William Contreras (R)15.2%1.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)10.9%1.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)14.4%1.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)10.3%1.0
8. David Hamilton (L)13.3%1.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)10.4%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.5 BF
Expected batters faced14.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)15.8%2.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.2%2.0
3. Christian Walker (R)12.3%2.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.6%2.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)12.2%2.0
6. Joey Loperfido (L)10.8%1.4
7. Cam Smith (R)10.1%1.0
8. Taylor Trammell (L)11.0%1.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)10.1%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.1 BF
Expected batters faced17.1
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)15.4%2.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.6%2.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)13.5%2.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)10.4%2.0
5. Austin Slater (R)11.0%2.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)13.4%2.0
7. Chandler Simpson (L)10.5%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)10.9%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)10.8%1.1
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.3 BF
Expected batters faced16.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.8%2.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)15.9%2.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.3%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)14.5%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)15.2%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.3%2.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)12.4%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)11.4%1.3
9. Daniel Susac (R)8.9%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.9 BF
Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)12.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)12.0%2.9
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.6%2.0
4. Maikel Garcia (R)10.9%2.0
5. Jac Caglianone (L)11.9%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)8.4%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)11.2%2.0
8. Kameron Misner (L)11.2%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)11.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)9.3%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)14.2%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)9.8%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)10.7%2.8
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)10.5%2.0
6. Angel Martínez (L)9.1%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)12.5%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)9.9%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.9 BF
Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)11.4%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.4%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)10.4%2.9
4. Randy Arozarena (R)13.8%2.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.5%2.0
6. Dominic Canzone (L)14.1%2.0
7. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)10.4%2.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)9.1%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)13.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)11.2%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.1%3.0
4. Wyatt Langford (R)12.3%2.5
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)12.7%2.0
6. Evan Carter (L)12.0%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)11.3%2.0
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Alex Call (R)14.2%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.5%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)10.0%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)10.8%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)11.4%2.5
6. Miguel Rojas (R)10.8%2.0
7. Max Muncy (L)13.6%2.0
8. Santiago Espinal (R)9.2%2.0
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)9.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)12.2%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)12.5%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)7.8%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.5%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)8.8%3.0
6. Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%2.7
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Braxton Fulford (R)11.4%2.0
9. Chad Stevens (R)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)12.8%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)10.5%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)13.4%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)12.8%2.7
5. A.J. Ewing (L)13.5%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.8%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)10.0%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)10.5%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)14.4%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)12.3%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)13.1%3.0
4. Oswald Peraza (R)11.9%2.5
5. Trey Mancini (R)11.5%2.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)11.5%2.0
7. Nick Madrigal (R)10.1%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.4%2.0
9. Jose Siri (R)14.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)12.6%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)9.4%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)9.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)10.0%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.9%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.2%3.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)14.2%2.3
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)10.4%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.8 BF
Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)14.6%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)12.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)13.1%2.8
4. Pete Alonso (R)14.8%2.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)13.0%2.0
6. Coby Mayo (R)11.6%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)14.2%2.0
8. Tyler O'Neill (R)10.1%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)14.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.1%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)9.9%3.0
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.3%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.7%3.0
6. Samad Taylor (R)12.2%3.0
7. Ty France (R)9.7%2.9
8. Will Wagner (L)10.3%2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)9.5%3.0
2. Ernie Clement (R)12.5%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.5%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)11.1%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.5%3.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)10.8%3.0
7. Myles Straw (R)10.7%2.0
8. Davis Schneider (R)11.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)8.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.1%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)14.5%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)13.5%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)13.3%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)8.9%2.9
6. Victor Caratini (L)8.5%2.0
7. Brooks Lee (L)11.4%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)11.2%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)12.6%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)12.2%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)16.8%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)13.2%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)10.1%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)9.2%2.6
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)10.3%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)8.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)17.5%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)12.5%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)14.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.5%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)10.1%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)13.6%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)12.2%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)10.2%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)15.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)14.3%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)13.8%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.4%2.3
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.0%2.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)9.2%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)11.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)14.9%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)16.5%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.1%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)13.5%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)13.6%2.0
6. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)11.4%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)11.4%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)8.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.5%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)12.4%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)12.2%3.0
4. Ian Happ (L)15.1%3.0
5. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.4%2.9
6. Nico Hoerner (R)8.4%2.0
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)9.3%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)9.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.7%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)11.6%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)12.6%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)14.7%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.4%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)10.8%2.2
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.3%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)10.0%2.0
9. James Outman (L)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)12.5%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)12.4%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.9%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)14.1%3.0
5. Dominic Smith (L)13.7%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.3%2.1
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.0%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)10.9%2.0
9. Austin Wynns (R)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)14.3%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)12.1%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)13.5%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)12.7%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)12.9%3.0
6. Geraldo Perdomo (R)10.0%2.8
7. Jordan Lawlar (R)11.5%2.0
8. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.7%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)15.6%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)13.5%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)13.0%3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
6. Chase Meidroth (R)11.9%2.0
7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)10.7%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.0 BF
Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)13.1%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.8%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.8%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)11.5%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.3%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)11.6%3.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.2%3.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)9.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Dane Myers (R)12.6%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)10.6%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.3%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)14.5%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.6%3.0
6. Blake Dunn (R)14.0%3.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)13.2%2.5
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)10.2%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)13.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shea Langeliers (R)17.8%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)14.5%3.0
3. Colby Thomas (R)13.1%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.9%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)10.8%3.0
6. Jonah Heim (R)15.0%2.0
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
8. Max Muncy (R)13.6%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)14.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)15.4%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.7%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)12.5%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)14.1%3.0
6. Tyler Callihan (L)14.7%3.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.9%3.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)12.0%2.2
9. Jared Triolo (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
27 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Luinder AvilaP
KCvsHOU· proj #2
8ERFinal
2
Spencer StriderP
ATL@NYM· proj #11
7ERFinal
T2
Griffin CanningP
SD@BAL· proj #14
7ERFinal
T2
Roki SasakiP
LAD@CWS· proj #26
7ERFinal
5
Ryan WeathersP
NYY@TOR· proj #16
6ERFinal
6
Tatsuya ImaiP
HOU@KC· proj #5
5ERFinal
T6
Zack LittellP
WSHvsSEA· proj #7
5ERFinal
T6
Jack LeiterP
TEX@BOS· proj #13
5ERFinal
T6
Trey YesavageP
TORvsNYY· proj #21
5ERFinal
10
Shane McClanahanP
TB@LAA· proj #12
4ERFinal
T10
Kyle LeahyP
STL@MIN· proj #17
4ERFinal
T10
Landen RouppP
SFvsCHC· proj #22
4ERFinal
13
Gage JumpP
ATHvsCOL· proj #10
3ERFinal
T13
Joe RyanP
MINvsSTL· proj #20
3ERFinal
T13
Sandy AlcantaraP
MIA@PIT· proj #30
3ERFinal
16
Jack FlahertyP
DET@CLE· proj #6
2ERFinal
T16
Anthony KayP
CWSvsLAD· proj #9
2ERFinal
T16
Shane BazP
BALvsSD· proj #15
2ERFinal
T16
Bryce MillerP
SEA@WSH· proj #19
2ERFinal
T16
Tanner BibeeP
CLEvsDET· proj #23
2ERFinal
T16
Nolan McLeanP
NYMvsATL· proj #24
2ERFinal
T16
Nick LodoloP
CINvsAZ· proj #25
2ERFinal
T16
Braxton AshcraftP
PITvsMIA· proj #27
2ERFinal
24
Tanner BanksP
PHI@MIL· proj #1
1ERFinal
T24
Sam AldegheriP
LAAvsTB· proj #3
1ERFinal
T24
Sonny GrayP
BOSvsTEX· proj #8
1ERFinal
T24
Eduardo RodriguezP
AZ@CIN· proj #28
1ERFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Friday, June 12, 2026
Tanner Banks (PHI) is the top earned runs spot on the Friday, June 12, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER, with Luinder Avila (KC) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Tanner Banks
Tanner Banks (PHI) tops the Friday, June 12, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER vs MIL. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Luinder Avila (KC) (74) — about 1.7 ER vs HOU.
Sam Aldegheri (LAA) (62) — about 2.0 ER vs TB.
Javier Assad (CHC) (58) — about 2.1 ER vs SF.
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) (52) — about 2.2 ER vs KC.
Jack Flaherty (DET) (49) — about 2.2 ER vs CLE.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.8 ER. Tanner Banks finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Friday, June 12, 2026)?
Tanner Banks (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER against MIL.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Friday, June 12, 2026: Tanner Banks (~1.2 ER), Luinder Avila (~1.7 ER), Sam Aldegheri (~2.0 ER), Javier Assad (~2.1 ER), Tatsuya Imai (~2.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
