MIA @ PIT Earned Runs matchups · Saturday, June 13, 2026

MIA

Miami Marlins

2–3

Final

PIT

Pittsburgh Pirates

◆ PNC ParkElevation 780 ftCenter Field 399 ft☀ 86°F SunnyWind 9 mph, L To R

Lake Bachar · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload11.7 BF

Expected batters faced11.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.5 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

PIT lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%2.0 PA

2Brandon Lowe (L)15.4%2.0 PA

3Bryan Reynolds (L)14.7%1.7 PA

4Ryan O'Hearn (L)12.5%1.0 PA

5Nick Gonzales (R)14.1%1.0 PA

6Endy Rodríguez (L)11.9%1.0 PA

7Tyler Callihan (L)14.7%1.0 PA

8Jake Mangum (L)12.0%1.0 PA

9Jared Triolo (R)9.8%1.0 PA

Bubba Chandler · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

MIA lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Liam Hicks (L)13.1%3.0 PA

2Otto Lopez (R)14.8%3.0 PA

3Xavier Edwards (L)11.5%3.0 PA

4Kyle Stowers (L)11.8%2.8 PA

5Heriberto Hernández (R)12.3%2.0 PA

6Leo Jiménez (R)11.7%2.0 PA

7Jakob Marsee (L)11.2%2.0 PA

8Javier Sanoja (R)9.3%2.0 PA

9Connor Norby (R)10.7%2.0 PA