Best MLB earned runs matchups — Saturday, June 13, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, June 13, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.7 BF
Expected batters faced11.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%2.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)15.4%2.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.7%1.7
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)12.5%1.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)14.1%1.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.9%1.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)14.7%1.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)12.0%1.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)9.8%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.9 BF
Expected batters faced14.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)14.3%2.0
2. Trea Turner (R)14.7%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)12.5%2.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)9.1%2.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)11.9%2.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.6%1.9
7. Bryson Stott (L)10.3%1.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)9.7%1.0
9. Derek Hill (R)12.2%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.0 BF
Expected batters faced16.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.3%2.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.2%2.0
3. Ozzie Albies (R)12.3%2.0
4. Matt Olson (L)14.5%2.0
5. Austin Riley (R)10.8%2.0
6. Eli White (R)11.8%2.0
7. Jorge Mateo (R)15.6%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)10.1%1.0
9. Sandy León (R)9.5%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.2 BF
Expected batters faced17.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)14.4%2.0
2. Mike Trout (R)15.4%2.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)15.1%2.0
4. Jo Adell (R)11.4%2.0
5. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.7%2.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)8.4%2.0
7. Denzer Guzman (R)9.8%2.0
8. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.2%1.2
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.5 BF
Expected batters faced18.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)15.6%2.5
2. Bo Bichette (R)13.2%2.0
3. Juan Soto (L)13.0%2.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)10.0%2.0
5. Marcus Semien (R)10.7%2.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R)9.9%2.0
7. Eric Wagaman (R)12.0%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.9%2.0
9. Vidal Bruján (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.4 BF
Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.1%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)9.9%2.4
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.3%2.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.7%2.0
6. Samad Taylor (R)12.2%2.0
7. Will Wagner (L)10.3%2.0
8. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.1 BF
Expected batters faced18.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.8%2.1
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)15.9%2.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.3%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)14.5%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)15.2%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.3%2.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)12.4%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)11.4%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)12.6%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)9.4%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)9.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)10.0%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.9%2.7
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.2%2.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)14.2%2.0
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)10.4%2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.8%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)15.2%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.0%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)10.9%2.0
5. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%2.0
6. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.2%2.0
7. Tommy Troy (R)12.0%2.0
8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)9.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)16.8%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)10.9%3.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)12.2%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)10.3%2.4
5. Riley Greene (L)10.9%2.0
6. Jahmai Jones (R)9.6%2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)12.1%2.0
8. Wenceel Pérez (R)14.4%2.0
9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)13.1%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.8%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)11.5%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.8%2.8
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.3%2.0
6. Leo Jiménez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.2%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)9.3%2.0
9. Connor Norby (R)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)13.9%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)14.0%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.5%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)12.0%2.9
5. Brooks Lee (R)9.9%2.0
6. Orlando Arcia (R)10.0%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)12.6%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.2%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)13.8%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.0%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.0%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)13.4%3.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)9.9%2.6
7. Noelvi Marte (R)9.6%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)8.6%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)12.4%3.0
2. Justin Foscue (R)13.2%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)12.7%3.0
4. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.2%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)12.4%2.4
6. Cody Freeman (R)11.6%2.0
7. Michael Helman (R)11.7%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)11.3%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)12.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)12.0%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)12.5%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)10.9%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)14.6%3.0
6. Cam Smith (R)11.4%2.2
7. Jake Meyers (R)11.0%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)8.8%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.9%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)12.9%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.6%3.0
4. Jesús Sánchez (L)12.4%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)12.8%3.0
6. Brandon Valenzuela (L)12.8%2.0
7. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
8. Charles McAdoo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)9.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)17.5%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)12.5%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)14.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.5%2.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)13.6%2.0
6. Dylan Crews (R)10.1%2.0
7. José Tena (L)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)12.5%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)9.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)12.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)12.0%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.6%3.0
4. Maikel Garcia (R)10.9%3.0
5. Jac Caglianone (L)11.9%3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)8.4%3.0
7. Michael Massey (L)11.2%2.8
8. Lane Thomas (R)11.0%2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masyn Winn (R)10.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)14.1%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)16.4%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)13.1%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)11.2%2.1
6. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)12.5%2.0
8. Pedro Pagés (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Angel Martínez (R)14.1%3.0
2. José Ramírez (R)14.0%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)10.0%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)12.7%3.0
5. David Fry (R)10.2%3.0
6. Travis Bazzana (L)10.8%2.5
7. Stuart Fairchild (R)13.4%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)10.9%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Edouard Julien (L)12.5%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)12.2%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)15.6%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)12.4%3.0
6. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
7. Kyle Karros (R)12.2%2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L)10.7%2.0
9. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)16.5%3.0
2. Jasson Domínguez (L)11.6%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)13.5%3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.1%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)13.6%3.0
6. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.3
7. José Caballero (R)11.4%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)11.4%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)8.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)11.4%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.4%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)10.4%3.0
4. Luke Raley (L)11.5%3.0
5. Dominic Canzone (L)14.1%3.0
6. Victor Robles (R)12.4%3.0
7. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)10.4%2.2
8. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)13.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.5%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)12.4%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)12.2%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.4%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)15.1%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)8.4%2.4
7. Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.1%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)10.2%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)12.8%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)13.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)12.3%3.0
6. Richie Palacios (L)12.3%3.0
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.2%2.5
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)10.5%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)13.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)14.6%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)12.7%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)14.8%3.0
4. Samuel Basallo (L)13.0%3.0
5. Leody Taveras (L)13.3%2.4
6. Colton Cowser (L)14.2%2.0
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)10.1%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)14.3%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.7%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)15.6%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)13.5%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)13.0%3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
6. Chase Meidroth (R)11.9%3.0
7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.5
8. Tristan Peters (L)10.7%2.0
9. Edgar Quero (L)9.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Colby Thomas (R)13.1%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)14.5%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)17.8%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)15.0%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)10.8%3.0
6. Henry Bolte (R)14.0%2.1
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
8. Max Muncy (R)13.6%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness14.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)18.2%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)15.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)16.5%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.3%2.9
5. Jake Bauers (L)16.4%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)13.9%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.3%2.0
8. David Hamilton (L)14.4%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness14.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)17.0%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)14.3%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)15.4%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)12.4%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)16.0%2.8
6. Kyle Tucker (L)13.9%2.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)13.6%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)13.1%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)12.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
28 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Trey GibsonP
BALvsSD· proj #6
6ERFinal
T1
Kyle FreelandP
COL@ATH· proj #28
6ERFinal
3
Shane DrohanP
MILvsPHI· proj #2
4ERFinal
T3
Matthew LiberatoreP
STL@MIN· proj #12
4ERFinal
T3
Noah CameronP
KCvsHOU· proj #15
4ERFinal
T3
Mike BurrowsP
HOU@KC· proj #18
4ERFinal
T3
Connor PrielippP
MINvsSTL· proj #19
4ERFinal
T3
Joey EstesP
ATHvsCOL· proj #21
4ERFinal
T3
Trevor McDonaldP
SFvsCHC· proj #24
4ERFinal
T3
Sean BurkeP
CWSvsLAD· proj #30
4ERFinal
11
Cade CavalliP
WSHvsSEA· proj #23
3ERFinal
T11
Aaron NolaP
PHI@MIL· proj #29
3ERFinal
13
Sean ManaeaP
NYMvsATL· proj #3
2ERFinal
T13
Jacob deGromP
TEX@BOS· proj #8
2ERFinal
T13
Bubba ChandlerP
PITvsMIA· proj #11
2ERFinal
T13
Ranger SuarezP
BOSvsTEX· proj #14
2ERFinal
T13
Luis CastilloP
SEA@WSH· proj #17
2ERFinal
T13
Tarik SkubalP
DET@CLE· proj #20
2ERFinal
T13
Randy VásquezP
SD@BAL· proj #26
2ERFinal
20
Lake BacharP
MIA@PIT· proj #1
1ERFinal
T20
Martín PérezP
ATL@NYM· proj #5
1ERFinal
T20
Ben BrownP
CHC@SF· proj #7
1ERFinal
T20
Rhett LowderP
CINvsAZ· proj #9
1ERFinal
T20
Joey CantilloP
CLEvsDET· proj #10
1ERFinal
T20
Michael SorokaP
AZ@CIN· proj #13
1ERFinal
T20
Cam SchlittlerP
NYY@TOR· proj #16
1ERFinal
T20
Kevin GausmanP
TORvsNYY· proj #22
1ERFinal
T20
Yoshinobu YamamotoP
LAD@CWS· proj #27
1ERFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 13, 2026
Lake Bachar (MIA) is the top earned runs spot on the Saturday, June 13, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER, with Shane Drohan (MIL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Lake Bachar
Lake Bachar (MIA) tops the Saturday, June 13, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER vs PIT. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Shane Drohan (MIL) (86) — about 1.7 ER vs PHI.
Sean Manaea (NYM) (78) — about 1.9 ER vs ATL.
Griffin Jax (TB) (69) — about 2.0 ER vs LAA.
Martín Pérez (ATL) (61) — about 2.1 ER vs NYM.
Trey Gibson (BAL) (57) — about 2.2 ER vs SD.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.9 ER. Lake Bachar finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Saturday, June 13, 2026)?
Lake Bachar (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER against PIT.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, June 13, 2026: Lake Bachar (~1.5 ER), Shane Drohan (~1.7 ER), Sean Manaea (~1.9 ER), Griffin Jax (~2.0 ER), Martín Pérez (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
