PHI @ MIL Earned Runs matchups · Saturday, June 13, 2026

PHI

Philadelphia Phillies

9–8

Final

MIL

Milwaukee Brewers

◆ American Family FieldElevation 597 ftCenter Field 400 ft☀ 82°F Partly CloudyWind 14 mph, R To L

Aaron Nola · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

MIL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Christian Yelich (L)18.2%3.0 PA

2Jackson Chourio (R)15.8%3.0 PA

3Brice Turang (L)16.5%3.0 PA

4William Contreras (R)11.3%2.9 PA

5Jake Bauers (L)16.4%2.0 PA

6Garrett Mitchell (L)13.9%2.0 PA

7Sal Frelick (L)11.3%2.0 PA

8David Hamilton (L)14.4%2.0 PA

9Joey Ortiz (R)11.5%2.0 PA

Shane Drohan · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.9 BF

Expected batters faced14.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.7 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

PHI lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA

1Kyle Schwarber (L)14.3%2.0 PA

2Trea Turner (R)14.7%2.0 PA

3Bryce Harper (L)12.5%2.0 PA

4Alec Bohm (R)9.1%2.0 PA

5Brandon Marsh (L)11.9%2.0 PA

6Edmundo Sosa (R)11.6%1.9 PA

7Bryson Stott (L)10.3%1.0 PA

8J.T. Realmuto (R)9.7%1.0 PA

9Derek Hill (R)12.2%1.0 PA