MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Sunday, June 14, 2026

HOU @ KC Earned Runs matchups · Sunday, June 14, 2026

HOU
HOU
Houston Astros
04
Final
KC
Kansas City Royals
KC
Kauffman StadiumElevation 856 ftCenter Field 410 ft 74°F SunnyWind 13 mph, L To R

HOU Spencer Arrighetti · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

KC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Carter Jensen (L)13.3%3.0 PA
2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)12.6%3.0 PA
3Jac Caglianone (L)12.0%3.0 PA
4Maikel Garcia (R)11.3%3.0 PA
5Michael Massey (L)11.5%3.0 PA
6Salvador Perez (R)8.7%2.6 PA
7Kameron Misner (L)10.4%2.0 PA
8Lane Thomas (R)12.4%2.0 PA
9Isaac Collins (L)10.7%2.0 PA

KC Stephen Kolek · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

HOU lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Jeremy Peña (R)16.4%3.0 PA
2Yordan Alvarez (L)15.4%3.0 PA
3Christian Walker (R)12.1%3.0 PA
4Joey Loperfido (L)12.3%3.0 PA
5Cam Smith (R)10.3%3.0 PA
6Jake Meyers (R)11.3%3.0 PA
7Brice Matthews (R)12.2%2.1 PA
8Raynel Delgado (L)11.7%2.0 PA
9Collin Price (R)11.7%2.0 PA