Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, June 14, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.0 BF
Expected batters faced9.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)8.3%1.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)13.0%1.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.2%1.0
4. Luke Raley (L)9.7%1.0
5. Dominic Canzone (L)9.3%1.0
6. Victor Robles (R)10.1%1.0
7. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)13.3%1.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)14.1%1.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)10.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.8 BF
Expected batters faced9.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Chapman (R)12.8%1.8
2. Luis Arraez (L)9.3%1.0
3. Bryce Eldridge (L)12.5%1.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)10.1%1.0
5. Casey Schmitt (R)10.4%1.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.1%1.0
7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.1%1.0
8. Daniel Susac (R)10.3%1.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)9.9%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.3 BF
Expected batters faced9.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)14.4%1.3
2. Andy Pages (R)11.0%1.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)9.7%1.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.3%1.0
5. Max Muncy (L)13.7%1.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)11.6%1.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)13.2%1.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)13.2%1.0
9. Alex Freeland (R)10.9%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.7 BF
Expected batters faced9.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)13.8%1.7
2. Mike Trout (R)14.7%1.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)15.3%1.0
4. Jo Adell (R)12.8%1.0
5. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.7%1.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)10.4%1.0
7. Nick Madrigal (R)15.3%1.0
8. Donovan Walton (L)12.4%1.0
9. Logan Porter (R)15.0%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)9.3%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.4%3.0
3. Kyle Manzardo (L)10.7%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)10.5%2.1
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.4%2.0
6. David Fry (R)13.1%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)12.5%2.0
8. Gabriel Arias (R)10.1%2.0
9. Patrick Bailey (L)9.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)11.6%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)10.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)7.5%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.3%3.0
5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)9.5%2.5
6. Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%2.0
7. Kyle Karros (R)11.9%2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L)8.5%2.0
9. Braxton Fulford (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.3%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)10.9%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)13.2%3.0
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.4%2.5
5. Gavin Sheets (L)7.5%2.0
6. Samad Taylor (R)12.3%2.0
7. Nick Solak (R)11.2%2.0
8. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)10.4%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)13.1%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)10.8%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)9.4%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)9.7%3.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)10.0%2.7
7. Matt McLain (R)12.0%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)9.5%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)9.4%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.3%3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)12.2%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)13.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)12.2%2.5
6. Richie Palacios (L)12.1%2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)11.4%2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)10.2%2.0
9. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lawrence Butler (L)11.4%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)14.9%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.1%3.0
4. Carlos Cortes (L)10.0%3.0
5. Zack Gelof (R)13.6%2.5
6. Jonah Heim (L)11.3%2.0
7. Max Muncy (R)10.5%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)8.0%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)14.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)13.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)14.5%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)12.3%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)9.1%2.6
5. Brandon Marsh (L)12.6%2.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)12.2%2.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)11.3%2.0
8. Rafael Marchán (R)11.5%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)13.3%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)12.6%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)12.0%3.0
4. Maikel Garcia (R)11.3%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)11.5%3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)8.7%2.6
7. Kameron Misner (L)10.4%2.0
8. Lane Thomas (R)12.4%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.6%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)15.1%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)13.3%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)12.9%2.0
5. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.0
6. Chase Meidroth (R)11.9%2.0
7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)11.5%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)14.9%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)12.9%3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (R)11.5%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.6%3.0
5. Amed Rosario (R)10.3%2.0
6. José Caballero (R)14.2%2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)13.9%2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)13.4%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)11.8%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)13.1%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.2%3.0
4. Ezequiel Duran (R)10.7%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.9%3.0
6. Justin Foscue (R)12.8%2.8
7. Cody Freeman (R)11.2%2.0
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)12.1%2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)12.3%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)12.5%3.0
3. Alejandro Kirk (R)10.2%3.0
4. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.0%3.0
6. Jesús Sánchez (L)12.2%2.2
7. Ernie Clement (R)12.3%2.0
8. Davis Schneider (R)13.8%2.0
9. Charles McAdoo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)13.2%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.3%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)14.4%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)10.1%3.0
5. Josh Bell (L)12.5%2.6
6. Victor Caratini (L)8.4%2.0
7. Brooks Lee (L)12.6%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)11.0%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)14.4%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.5%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.6%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.8%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.3%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)10.5%2.8
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.1%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Connor Norby (R)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)13.2%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)10.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)13.4%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)12.0%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)12.8%3.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.2%3.0
7. Brett Baty (L)9.9%2.1
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.4%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)12.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.8 BF
Expected batters faced25.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)10.0%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.1%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.1%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.5%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)12.1%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)10.9%3.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)13.9%3.0
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)10.2%2.8
9. Carlos Narváez (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.7%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.5%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.6%3.0
4. Ian Happ (L)14.9%3.0
5. Michael Conforto (L)10.2%3.0
6. Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
7. Carson Kelly (R)9.6%2.4
8. Moisés Ballesteros (L)9.1%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)14.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)14.1%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)12.2%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)13.4%3.0
6. Geraldo Perdomo (R)10.6%2.5
7. Jordan Lawlar (R)12.4%2.0
8. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)14.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.7%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)11.6%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)12.6%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)14.7%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.4%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)10.8%3.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.3%2.7
8. James Outman (L)10.9%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)12.6%3.0
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)12.1%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.5%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)15.1%3.0
5. Dominic Smith (L)13.0%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)10.4%3.0
7. Eli White (R)13.6%2.3
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)10.5%2.0
9. Sandy León (L)8.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)17.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)13.3%3.0
3. Dylan Crews (R)11.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.8%3.0
5. Keibert Ruiz (L)11.6%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)13.9%2.3
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)9.4%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)10.0%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)12.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)14.4%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)14.0%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)13.1%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)15.2%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)13.5%2.1
6. Leody Taveras (L)13.2%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)14.6%2.0
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)13.4%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)16.4%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.4%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)12.1%3.0
4. Joey Loperfido (L)12.3%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)10.3%3.0
6. Jake Meyers (R)11.3%3.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)12.2%2.1
8. Raynel Delgado (L)11.7%2.0
9. Collin Price (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)12.1%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)15.4%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)13.8%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)12.1%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)13.4%3.0
6. Tyler Callihan (L)15.0%2.8
7. Jake Mangum (L)11.6%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)9.6%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)16.2%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)15.0%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)15.1%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.9%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)12.7%3.0
6. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.6
7. Bryan Torres (L)13.7%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)8.6%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload26.5 BF
Expected batters faced26.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)14.5%3.0
2. Andrew Vaughn (R)14.3%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)14.9%3.0
4. Gary Sánchez (R)13.1%3.0
5. Luis Rengifo (R)9.7%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)10.3%3.0
7. Blake Perkins (R)12.5%3.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)10.3%3.0
9. David Hamilton (L)13.1%2.5
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
24 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Tomoyuki SuganoP
COL@ATH· proj #10
8ERFinal
2
Jeffrey SpringsP
ATHvsCOL· proj #6
6ERFinal
T2
Connelly EarlyP
BOSvsTEX· proj #15
6ERFinal
T2
Bryce ElderP
ATL@NYM· proj #19
6ERFinal
T2
Emerson HancockP
SEA@WSH· proj #25
6ERFinal
6
Spencer ArrighettiP
HOU@KC· proj #12
4ERFinal
T6
Taj BradleyP
MINvsSTL· proj #29
4ERFinal
T6
Cristopher SánchezP
PHI@MIL· proj #30
4ERFinal
9
Zac GallenP
AZ@CIN· proj #8
3ERFinal
T9
Emmet SheehanP
LAD@CWS· proj #13
3ERFinal
T9
Nathan EovaldiP
TEX@BOS· proj #20
3ERFinal
12
Trevor RogersP
BALvsSD· proj #7
2ERFinal
T12
Grayson RodriguezP
LAAvsTB· proj #9
2ERFinal
T12
Patrick CorbinP
TORvsNYY· proj #14
2ERFinal
T12
Will WarrenP
NYY@TOR· proj #16
2ERFinal
T12
Michael McGreevyP
STL@MIN· proj #17
2ERFinal
T12
Paul SkenesP
PITvsMIA· proj #18
2ERFinal
18
PJ PoulinP
WSHvsSEA· proj #1
1ERFinal
T18
Bryan HudsonP
CWSvsLAD· proj #3
1ERFinal
T18
Casey LeguminaP
TB@LAA· proj #4
1ERFinal
T18
Andrew AbbottP
CINvsAZ· proj #22
1ERFinal
T18
Freddy PeraltaP
NYMvsATL· proj #24
1ERFinal
T18
Walker BuehlerP
SD@BAL· proj #26
1ERFinal
T18
Max MeyerP
MIA@PIT· proj #28
1ERFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026
PJ Poulin (WSH) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, June 14, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Ryan Rolison (CHC) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: PJ Poulin
PJ Poulin (WSH) tops the Sunday, June 14, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs SEA. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Ryan Rolison (CHC) (96) — about 1.1 ER vs SF.
Bryan Hudson (CWS) (94) — about 1.1 ER vs LAD.
Casey Legumina (TB) (86) — about 1.3 ER vs LAA.
Casey Mize (DET) (47) — about 2.1 ER vs CLE.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) (42) — about 2.2 ER vs COL.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.7 ER. PJ Poulin finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, June 14, 2026)?
PJ Poulin (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against SEA.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, June 14, 2026: PJ Poulin (~1.0 ER), Ryan Rolison (~1.1 ER), Bryan Hudson (~1.1 ER), Casey Legumina (~1.3 ER), Casey Mize (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
