COL @ CHC Earned Runs matchups · Monday, June 15, 2026

COL

Colorado Rockies

4–5

Final

CHC

Chicago Cubs

◆ Wrigley FieldElevation 595 ftCenter Field 400 ft☀ 76°F Partly CloudyWind 10 mph, Out To RF

Michael Lorenzen · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

CHC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)14.9%3.0 PA

2Alex Bregman (R)11.5%3.0 PA

3Michael Busch (L)11.5%3.0 PA

4Seiya Suzuki (R)12.6%3.0 PA

5Ian Happ (L)14.4%2.5 PA

6Nico Hoerner (R)8.4%2.0 PA

7Moisés Ballesteros (L)9.1%2.0 PA

8Matt Shaw (R)10.6%2.0 PA

9Dansby Swanson (R)12.9%2.0 PA

Shota Imanaga · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

COL lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA

1Willi Castro (R)12.0%3.0 PA

2Tyler Freeman (R)11.9%3.0 PA

3TJ Rumfield (L)9.4%3.0 PA

4Hunter Goodman (R)12.7%3.0 PA

5Ezequiel Tovar (R)9.1%3.0 PA

6Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%2.9 PA

7Jake McCarthy (L)9.1%2.0 PA

8Kyle Karros (R)13.1%2.0 PA

9Braxton Fulford (R)11.8%2.0 PA