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Best MLB earned runs matchupsMonday, June 15, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, June 15, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload10.0 BF

Expected batters faced10.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.1 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)10.0%2.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)13.5%1.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)10.6%1.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)13.3%1.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)9.5%1.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)10.6%1.0
7. Matt McLain (R)11.7%1.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)8.5%1.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload10.4 BF

Expected batters faced10.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.2 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)10.9%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)13.5%1.4
3. Alec Burleson (L)10.9%1.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)15.7%1.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%1.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.5%1.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)11.2%1.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%1.0
9. Nathan Church (L)12.0%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload10.2 BF

Expected batters faced10.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.2 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)15.2%2.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.1%1.2
3. Christian Walker (R)11.3%1.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)10.9%1.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)11.8%1.0
6. Taylor Trammell (L)11.1%1.0
7. Cam Smith (R)9.8%1.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)11.9%1.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)10.9%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.6 BF

Expected batters faced15.6
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.8 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)12.3%2.0
2. Trea Turner (R)12.0%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)17.1%2.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)13.2%2.0
5. Bryson Stott (L)9.6%2.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)10.9%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%1.6
8. Justin Crawford (L)7.8%1.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.2 BF

Expected batters faced17.2
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.8 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)9.7%2.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.0%2.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)11.4%2.0
4. Maikel Garcia (R)13.6%2.0
5. Starling Marte (R)9.5%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)11.8%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)10.0%2.0
8. Carter Jensen (L)11.4%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (R)10.6%1.2

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.0 BF

Expected batters faced19.0
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.3%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)9.9%2.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)11.6%2.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.4%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.2%2.0
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)9.8%2.0
7. Cody Freeman (R)10.5%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)10.3%2.0
9. Elias Díaz (R)12.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.8 BF

Expected batters faced18.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.5%2.8
2. Gleyber Torres (R)11.1%2.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.1%2.0
4. Riley Greene (L)12.6%2.0
5. Dillon Dingler (R)14.3%2.0
6. Colt Keith (L)10.9%2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.0%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)10.0%2.0
9. James Outman (L)11.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)15.2%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)11.6%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)12.1%3.0
4. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%2.2
5. Carlos Cortes (L)10.3%2.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)13.9%2.0
7. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)7.1%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)8.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.8%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.5%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)12.5%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)10.2%2.5
5. Ben Williamson (R)13.9%2.0
6. Austin Slater (R)10.6%2.0
7. Cedric Mullins (L)9.3%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)12.6%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)10.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.1%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)15.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.0%3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)9.7%2.8
6. Nolan Arenado (R)10.5%2.0
7. Jordan Lawlar (R)11.9%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)9.5%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)12.0%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.9%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)9.4%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)12.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)9.1%3.0
6. Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%2.9
7. Jake McCarthy (L)9.1%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)13.1%2.0
9. Braxton Fulford (R)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)14.9%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.5%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.5%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.6%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)14.4%2.5
6. Nico Hoerner (R)8.4%2.0
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)9.1%2.0
8. Matt Shaw (R)10.6%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.2%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)10.8%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)12.9%3.0
5. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%3.0
6. Will Wagner (L)11.9%3.0
7. Ty France (R)10.3%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.4%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)14.5%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)14.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.1%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)12.6%3.0
5. Josh Bell (R)10.3%2.3
6. Kyler Fedko (R)11.7%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)12.4%2.0
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)12.7%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)12.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)13.3%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)13.5%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.8%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)14.1%3.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.6%2.2
7. Brett Baty (L)9.7%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.1%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)11.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)14.8%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.9%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.4%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.7%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.7%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)10.5%2.8
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.0%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)10.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)13.8%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)13.6%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)13.0%2.5
7. Tyler Callihan (L)14.3%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)10.6%2.0
9. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.0 BF

Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)13.8%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)13.6%3.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)14.6%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)13.1%3.0
5. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.5%3.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)10.0%3.0
7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.9%3.0
8. Donovan Walton (L)12.0%2.0
9. Oswald Peraza (R)7.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)18.5%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)13.2%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)12.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.9%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.5%2.5
6. Daylen Lile (L)14.4%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)12.4%2.0
8. Keibert Ruiz (L)12.9%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)10.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness14.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)16.8%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.6%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.6%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.2%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)15.9%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)13.7%3.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)13.8%2.1
8. Dalton Rushing (L)13.4%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.