MIA @ PHI Earned Runs matchups · Tuesday, June 16, 2026

MIA

Miami Marlins

2–8

Final

PHI

Philadelphia Phillies

◆ Citizens Bank ParkElevation 20 ftCenter Field 401 ft☀ 78°F ClearWind 8 mph, Out To CF

Tyler Phillips · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.6 BF

Expected batters faced16.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

PHI lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Brandon Marsh (L)13.2%2.0 PA

2Kyle Schwarber (L)12.3%2.0 PA

3Bryce Harper (L)17.1%2.0 PA

4Alec Bohm (R)9.3%2.0 PA

5Bryson Stott (L)9.6%2.0 PA

6J.T. Realmuto (R)10.9%2.0 PA

7Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0 PA

8Justin Crawford (L)7.8%1.6 PA

9Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%1.0 PA

Jesús Luzardo · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

MIA lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA

1Xavier Edwards (R)13.9%3.0 PA

2Otto Lopez (R)11.9%3.0 PA

3Liam Hicks (L)11.5%3.0 PA

4Heriberto Hernández (R)11.3%3.0 PA

5Javier Sanoja (R)10.2%3.0 PA

6Leo Jiménez (R)10.3%2.6 PA

7Esteury Ruiz (R)15.2%2.0 PA

8Jakob Marsee (L)13.9%2.0 PA

9Connor Norby (R)9.4%2.0 PA