Best MLB earned runs matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.6 BF
Expected batters faced14.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.2%2.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.7%2.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)13.8%2.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%2.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)13.6%2.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)13.0%1.6
7. Tyler Callihan (L)14.3%1.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)10.6%1.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)9.6%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.6 BF
Expected batters faced16.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Brandon Marsh (L)13.2%2.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)12.3%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)17.1%2.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)9.3%2.0
5. Bryson Stott (L)9.6%2.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)10.9%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)7.8%1.6
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.8 BF
Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)10.0%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)13.5%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)10.6%2.8
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)9.9%2.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)9.5%2.0
6. Spencer Steer (R)13.3%2.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)8.5%2.0
8. Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.9 BF
Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)14.9%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.5%2.9
3. Michael Busch (L)11.5%2.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.6%2.0
5. Ian Happ (L)14.4%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)8.4%2.0
7. Matt Shaw (R)10.6%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.1%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.6%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (R)12.3%3.0
3. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.9%3.0
4. David Fry (R)10.0%3.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L)10.6%2.3
6. Stuart Fairchild (R)13.0%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)10.7%2.0
8. Gabriel Arias (R)10.3%2.0
9. Austin Hedges (R)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)9.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.0%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)11.4%3.0
4. Maikel Garcia (R)13.6%3.0
5. Starling Marte (R)9.5%3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)11.8%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)10.0%2.0
8. Tyler Tolbert (R)10.7%2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)13.3%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)13.5%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.8%2.9
5. A.J. Ewing (L)14.1%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.6%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)9.7%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.1%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.3%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)9.9%3.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)11.6%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.4%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)12.0%3.0
6. Jake Burger (R)11.2%3.0
7. Josh Smith (L)9.3%2.3
8. Alejandro Osuna (L)9.8%2.0
9. Elias Díaz (R)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.2%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)10.8%3.0
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.9%3.0
6. Samad Taylor (R)12.0%2.0
7. Ty France (R)10.3%2.0
8. Will Wagner (L)11.9%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)10.5%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.9%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)10.9%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)12.5%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)12.0%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.4%2.6
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)13.3%2.0
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)9.7%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)13.1%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)15.3%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)13.9%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)9.8%2.5
5. Josh Bell (L)12.6%2.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)12.3%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)11.9%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)10.5%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)14.2%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)10.4%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)11.3%3.0
4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)9.8%3.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)12.0%3.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (R)13.1%2.5
7. Jordan Lawlar (R)12.0%2.0
8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)9.8%2.0
9. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)15.2%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)11.6%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)12.1%3.0
4. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%3.0
5. Carlos Cortes (L)10.3%3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)13.9%2.7
7. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)7.1%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)8.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.5%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)14.3%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.1%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)12.6%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.0%2.4
6. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.9%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)10.0%2.0
8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.3%2.0
9. James Outman (L)11.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)10.3%3.0
2. Ernie Clement (R)13.3%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.3%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)12.3%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.9%3.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)9.8%2.8
7. Davis Schneider (R)11.5%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)8.9%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)14.2%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)13.1%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.5%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)14.7%2.9
5. Dominic Smith (L)12.8%2.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)12.0%2.0
7. Austin Riley (R)10.3%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)10.4%2.0
9. Ha-Seong Kim (R)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (R)13.9%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)11.9%3.0
3. Liam Hicks (L)11.5%3.0
4. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.3%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)10.2%3.0
6. Leo Jiménez (R)10.3%2.6
7. Esteury Ruiz (R)15.2%2.0
8. Jakob Marsee (L)13.9%2.0
9. Connor Norby (R)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)12.6%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)13.2%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)13.4%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)15.3%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)13.2%2.5
6. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
7. Brett Sullivan (L)11.5%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.6%2.0
9. Edouard Julien (L)12.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.0%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)15.3%3.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)12.2%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)13.9%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.2%2.6
6. Willy Adames (R)12.0%2.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)11.5%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)8.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.8%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)15.4%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.6%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)12.3%3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.6
6. Chase Meidroth (R)11.8%2.0
7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)11.4%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.8%3.0
2. Austin Slater (R)10.6%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.5%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)12.5%3.0
5. Ryan Vilade (R)10.2%3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)13.9%3.0
7. Chandler Simpson (L)10.6%2.7
8. Nick Fortes (R)12.6%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)12.3%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)11.7%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.8%3.0
4. Dominic Canzone (L)14.6%3.0
5. Rob Refsnyder (R)10.8%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.5%3.0
7. Victor Robles (R)12.2%2.1
8. Colt Emerson (L)14.2%2.0
9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)12.1%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)12.5%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)13.1%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)15.0%3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)12.2%2.7
7. Cam Smith (R)11.1%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)10.8%2.0
9. Raynel Delgado (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)16.4%3.0
2. Cody Bellinger (L)13.4%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)10.8%3.0
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)13.8%3.0
5. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%3.0
6. José Caballero (R)11.3%3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)10.9%2.0
8. J.C. Escarra (L)9.2%2.0
9. Anthony Volpe (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)16.2%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)15.0%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)15.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.8%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)12.2%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.3%2.7
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)10.2%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)11.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.9%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)14.0%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)13.1%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)15.3%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)13.4%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)12.7%2.1
7. Colton Cowser (L)14.1%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)12.4%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)13.8%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)13.6%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.5%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)13.1%3.0
5. Nick Madrigal (R)14.8%3.0
6. Wade Meckler (L)14.6%3.0
7. Denzer Guzman (R)10.0%3.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.9%2.2
9. Donovan Walton (L)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)16.8%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.6%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.6%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.2%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)15.9%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)13.7%2.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)13.8%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness14.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)17.2%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)15.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)16.6%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)12.4%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)16.8%2.4
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)9.6%2.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)15.1%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)13.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)18.5%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)13.2%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)12.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.9%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.5%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)14.4%3.0
7. Jacob Young (R)12.4%3.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.2%2.2
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
25 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Davis MartinP
CWS@NYY· proj #24
9ERFinal
2
Tyler PhillipsP
MIA@PHI· proj #2
8ERFinal
3
Kumar RockerP
TEXvsMIN· proj #11
6ERFinal
T3
Merrill KellyP
AZvsLAA· proj #27
6ERFinal
5
Edward CabreraP
CHCvsCOL· proj #18
5ERFinal
6
Kodai SengaP
NYM@CIN· proj #3
4ERFinal
T6
Mitch KellerP
PIT@ATH· proj #13
4ERFinal
8
Jack PerkinsP
ATHvsPIT· proj #1
3ERFinal
T8
Payton TolleP
BOSvsTOR· proj #15
3ERFinal
T8
Grant HolmesP
ATLvsSF· proj #19
3ERFinal
T8
Brandon YoungP
BAL@SEA· proj #22
3ERFinal
T8
Michael KingP
SD@STL· proj #25
3ERFinal
T8
Michael WachaP
KC@WSH· proj #30
3ERFinal
14
Ryan FeltnerP
COL@CHC· proj #4
2ERFinal
T14
Zebby MatthewsP
MIN@TEX· proj #8
2ERFinal
T14
Andre PallanteP
STLvsSD· proj #9
2ERFinal
T14
Adrian HouserP
SF@ATL· proj #16
2ERFinal
T14
Jesús LuzardoP
PHIvsMIA· proj #17
2ERFinal
T14
Gerrit ColeP
NYYvsCWS· proj #20
2ERFinal
20
Foster GriffinP
WSHvsKC· proj #6
1ERFinal
T20
Brady SingerP
CINvsNYM· proj #7
1ERFinal
T20
Hunter BrownP
HOUvsDET· proj #14
1ERFinal
T20
Logan GilbertP
SEAvsBAL· proj #26
1ERFinal
T20
Drew RasmussenP
TB@LAD· proj #28
1ERFinal
T20
Slade CecconiP
CLE@MIL· proj #29
1ERFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Jack Perkins (ATH) is the top earned runs spot on the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER, with Tyler Phillips (MIA) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Jack Perkins
Jack Perkins (ATH) tops the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER vs PIT. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Tyler Phillips (MIA) (96) — about 1.9 ER vs PHI.
Kodai Senga (NYM) (72) — about 2.2 ER vs CIN.
Ryan Feltner (COL) (64) — about 2.3 ER vs CHC.
Robert Gasser (MIL) (57) — about 2.4 ER vs CLE.
Foster Griffin (WSH) (56) — about 2.4 ER vs KC.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.3 ER. Jack Perkins finished with 3. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?
Jack Perkins (ATH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER against PIT.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Jack Perkins (~1.8 ER), Tyler Phillips (~1.9 ER), Kodai Senga (~2.2 ER), Ryan Feltner (~2.3 ER), Robert Gasser (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
