TOR @ BOS Earned Runs matchups · Tuesday, June 16, 2026

TOR

Toronto Blue Jays

6–1

Final

BOS

Boston Red Sox

◆ Fenway ParkElevation 21 ftCenter Field 420 ft☀ 77°F Partly CloudyWind 3 mph, Out To RF

Dylan Cease · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

BOS lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Masataka Yoshida (L)10.5%3.0 PA

2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.9%3.0 PA

3Wilyer Abreu (L)10.9%3.0 PA

4Willson Contreras (R)12.5%3.0 PA

5Jarren Duran (L)12.0%3.0 PA

6Caleb Durbin (R)11.4%2.6 PA

7Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)13.3%2.0 PA

8Marcelo Mayer (L)9.7%2.0 PA

9Connor Wong (R)11.4%2.0 PA

Payton Tolle · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

TOR lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA

1George Springer (R)10.3%3.0 PA

2Ernie Clement (R)13.3%3.0 PA

3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.3%3.0 PA

4Alejandro Kirk (R)12.3%3.0 PA

5Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.9%3.0 PA

6Nathan Lukes (L)9.8%2.8 PA

7Davis Schneider (R)11.5%2.0 PA

8Andrés Giménez (L)8.9%2.0 PA

9Myles Straw (R)10.7%2.0 PA