MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Wednesday, June 17, 2026

SD @ STL Earned Runs matchups · Wednesday, June 17, 2026

SD
SD
San Diego Padres
61
Final
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
STL
Busch StadiumElevation 460 ftCenter Field 400 ft 85°F CloudyWind 22 mph, R To L

SD Bradgley Rodriguez · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload9.6 BF

Expected batters faced9.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.2 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

STL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1JJ Wetherholt (L)16.2%1.6 PA
2Iván Herrera (R)15.0%1.0 PA
3Alec Burleson (L)15.7%1.0 PA
4Jordan Walker (R)11.8%1.0 PA
5Lars Nootbaar (L)12.2%1.0 PA
6Masyn Winn (R)11.3%1.0 PA
7Jimmy Crooks (L)10.2%1.0 PA
8Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%1.0 PA
9Nathan Church (L)11.6%1.0 PA

STL Kyle Leahy · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

SD lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.2%3.0 PA
2Samad Taylor (R)12.0%3.0 PA
3Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Manny Machado (R)10.8%3.0 PA
5Gavin Sheets (L)12.9%2.6 PA
6Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%2.0 PA
7Ty France (R)10.3%2.0 PA
8Will Wagner (L)11.9%2.0 PA
9Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0 PA