Best MLB earned runs matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.2 BF
Expected batters faced9.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)12.3%1.2
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.9%1.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)10.9%1.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)12.5%1.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)12.0%1.0
6. Masataka Yoshida (L)10.5%1.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)13.3%1.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)9.4%1.0
9. Marcelo Mayer (L)9.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.6 BF
Expected batters faced9.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)16.2%1.6
2. Iván Herrera (R)15.0%1.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)15.7%1.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.8%1.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)12.2%1.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.3%1.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)10.2%1.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%1.0
9. Nathan Church (L)11.6%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.5 BF
Expected batters faced14.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)18.5%2.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)13.2%2.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)12.3%2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.9%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.5%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)14.4%1.6
7. Keibert Ruiz (L)12.9%1.0
8. José Tena (L)11.6%1.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)10.0%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload15.8 BF
Expected batters faced15.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)12.6%2.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)12.0%2.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)13.4%2.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)15.3%2.0
5. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
6. Edouard Julien (L)12.1%2.0
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.6%1.8
8. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%1.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)14.6%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.6 BF
Expected batters faced17.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)14.2%2.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)10.4%2.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)11.3%2.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)13.7%2.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)12.0%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (R)13.1%2.0
7. Jordan Lawlar (R)12.0%2.0
8. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)15.4%1.6
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)8.7%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)10.8%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.3%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.0%2.4
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.6%2.0
6. David Fry (R)12.9%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)12.2%2.0
8. Petey Halpin (L)12.0%2.0
9. Patrick Bailey (L)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.0 BF
Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)13.1%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)12.7%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)12.6%2.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)12.2%2.0
5. Michael Massey (L)11.2%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)8.7%2.0
7. John Rave (L)10.3%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)12.3%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.2 BF
Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)10.6%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)12.1%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.4%2.3
4. Michael Busch (L)9.6%2.0
5. Alex Bregman (R)10.9%2.0
6. Ian Happ (R)12.0%2.0
7. Matt Shaw (R)11.7%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)14.0%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)14.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)13.5%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)10.6%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)9.9%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)9.5%2.8
6. Spencer Steer (R)13.3%2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)10.6%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)9.9%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)15.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.1%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.3%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)10.9%2.1
5. Jose Altuve (R)11.8%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)9.8%2.0
7. Joey Loperfido (L)11.9%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)10.8%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)10.3%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.3%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.9%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)12.3%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)13.3%2.3
6. Jesús Sánchez (L)9.5%2.0
7. Davis Schneider (R)11.5%2.0
8. Myles Straw (R)10.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)8.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.2%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)12.0%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)10.8%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.9%2.6
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%2.0
7. Ty France (R)10.3%2.0
8. Will Wagner (L)11.9%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Tommy Edman (R)17.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.0%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)10.5%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.3%2.5
5. Miguel Rojas (R)11.4%2.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.0
7. Alex Call (R)13.0%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)13.1%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (R)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)15.3%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)13.4%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)12.8%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)12.0%3.0
5. Everson Pereira (R)10.5%2.0
6. Edgar Quero (R)10.1%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (R)11.7%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.1%2.0
9. Sam Antonacci (L)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)14.8%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.9%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.4%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.7%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)10.5%2.4
6. Owen Caissie (L)10.5%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.0%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)12.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)15.0%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)13.9%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)12.7%3.0
4. Marcus Semien (R)10.4%3.0
5. Mark Vientos (R)9.7%3.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R)9.7%3.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)8.3%2.0
8. Luis Torrens (R)9.8%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)12.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)14.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)12.7%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)10.2%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.3%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)11.0%2.5
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)12.8%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)14.0%2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)14.4%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)9.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)13.8%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)13.6%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)10.2%2.0
7. Jake Mangum (L)10.6%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)9.6%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)12.3%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)11.7%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.8%3.0
4. Dominic Canzone (L)14.6%3.0
5. Cole Young (L)11.5%3.0
6. Victor Robles (R)12.2%2.3
7. Colt Emerson (L)14.2%2.0
8. Connor Joe (R)9.9%2.0
9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.5%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)14.3%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)12.6%3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.0%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.1%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)10.9%2.5
7. Matt Vierling (R)9.3%2.0
8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.3%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)9.3%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.8%3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)12.7%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)14.0%3.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)12.6%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)11.9%2.8
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)12.9%2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)10.9%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)13.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)13.1%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)12.7%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)13.3%3.0
4. Oswald Peraza (R)12.7%3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)9.8%3.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)10.9%2.8
7. Jose Siri (R)13.2%2.0
8. Logan Porter (R)13.2%2.0
9. Wade Meckler (L)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.0%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)15.3%3.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)12.2%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)13.9%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.2%2.3
6. Willy Adames (R)12.0%2.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)11.5%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)13.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)2.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.1%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.3%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.6%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.2%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)10.8%3.0
6. Eli White (R)12.7%2.0
7. Jorge Mateo (R)14.7%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)13.4%2.0
9. Sandy León (R)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.0 BF
Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)15.2%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)11.6%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)12.1%3.0
4. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (L)10.7%3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)13.9%3.0
7. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%3.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)7.1%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)8.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)12.0%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)12.3%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)17.1%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)13.2%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)9.3%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)9.6%3.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)7.8%2.5
9. Garrett Stubbs (L)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.9%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)14.0%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)13.1%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)15.3%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)13.4%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)12.7%3.0
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)10.5%2.2
8. Jackson Holliday (L)12.7%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness14.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)17.2%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)15.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)16.6%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)12.4%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)16.8%3.0
6. Sal Frelick (L)11.6%3.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)15.1%2.7
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)13.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
25 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Sean SullivanP
COL@CHC· proj #8
8ERFinal
2
Nick LodoloP
CINvsNYM· proj #16
7ERFinal
T2
Gavin WilliamsP
CLE@MIL· proj #28
7ERFinal
4
Sam AldegheriP
LAA@AZ· proj #5
6ERFinal
T4
Andrew PainterP
PHIvsMIA· proj #15
6ERFinal
T4
Aaron CivaleP
ATHvsPIT· proj #18
6ERFinal
7
JR RitchieP
ATLvsSF· proj #23
5ERFinal
8
Brandon SproatP
MILvsCLE· proj #6
4ERFinal
T8
Zack LittellP
WSHvsKC· proj #7
4ERFinal
T8
Anthony KayP
CWS@NYY· proj #17
4ERFinal
T8
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsTB· 0-for-1· proj #21
4ERFinal
12
Casey MizeP
DET@HOU· proj #10
3ERFinal
T12
Kyle LeahyP
STLvsSD· proj #12
3ERFinal
T12
Carlos RodónP
NYYvsCWS· proj #14
3ERFinal
T12
George KirbyP
SEAvsBAL· proj #27
3ERFinal
16
Javier AssadP
CHCvsCOL· proj #4
2ERFinal
T16
Jake BennettP
BOSvsTOR· proj #11
2ERFinal
T16
Shane McClanahanP
TB@LAD· proj #13
2ERFinal
T16
Carson WhisenhuntP
SF@ATL· proj #24
2ERFinal
T16
Sandy AlcantaraP
MIA@PHI· proj #26
2ERFinal
21
Luinder AvilaP
KC@WSH· proj #3
1ERFinal
T21
Kyle BradishP
BAL@SEA· proj #19
1ERFinal
T21
Peter LambertP
HOUvsDET· proj #20
1ERFinal
T21
Eduardo RodriguezP
AZvsLAA· proj #22
1ERFinal
T21
Braxton AshcraftP
PIT@ATH· proj #25
1ERFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Braydon Fisher (TOR) is the top earned runs spot on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Bradgley Rodriguez (SD) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Braydon Fisher
Braydon Fisher (TOR) tops the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs BOS. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Bradgley Rodriguez (SD) (91) — about 1.2 ER vs STL.
Luinder Avila (KC) (63) — about 1.9 ER vs WSH.
Javier Assad (CHC) (63) — about 1.9 ER vs COL.
Sam Aldegheri (LAA) (54) — about 2.1 ER vs AZ.
Brandon Sproat (MIL) (52) — about 2.2 ER vs CLE.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.8 ER. Braydon Fisher finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?
Braydon Fisher (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against BOS.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Braydon Fisher (~1.0 ER), Bradgley Rodriguez (~1.2 ER), Luinder Avila (~1.9 ER), Javier Assad (~1.9 ER), Sam Aldegheri (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
