‹ Earned Runs · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
DET @ HOU Earned Runs matchups · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
DET
Detroit Tigers
2–4
Final
HOU
Houston Astros
◆ Daikin ParkElevation 45 ftCenter Field 409 ft☀ 73°F Roof ClosedWind 0 mph, None
Casey Mize · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
HOU lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Jeremy Peña (R)15.2%3.0 PA
2Yordan Alvarez (L)15.1%3.0 PA
3Christian Walker (R)11.3%3.0 PA
4Isaac Paredes (R)10.9%2.1 PA
5Jose Altuve (R)11.8%2.0 PA
6Cam Smith (R)9.8%2.0 PA
7Joey Loperfido (L)11.9%2.0 PA
8Jake Meyers (R)10.8%2.0 PA
9Christian Vázquez (R)10.9%2.0 PA
Peter Lambert · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
DET lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Kevin McGonigle (L)15.5%3.0 PA
2Dillon Dingler (R)14.3%3.0 PA
3Riley Greene (L)12.6%3.0 PA
4Spencer Torkelson (R)11.0%3.0 PA
5Kerry Carpenter (L)11.1%3.0 PA
6Colt Keith (L)10.9%2.5 PA
7Matt Vierling (R)9.3%2.0 PA
8Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.3%2.0 PA
9Jake Rogers (R)11.1%2.0 PA