‹ Earned Runs · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
NYM @ CIN Earned Runs matchups · Wednesday, June 17, 2026
NYM
New York Mets
9–1
Final
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
◆ Great American Ball ParkElevation 535 ftCenter Field 404 ft☀ 78°F Partly CloudyWind 7 mph, R To L
Nolan McLean · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
CIN lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2JJ Bleday (L)13.5%3.0 PA
3Sal Stewart (R)10.6%3.0 PA
4Nathaniel Lowe (L)9.9%3.0 PA
5Eugenio Suárez (R)9.5%2.8 PA
6Spencer Steer (R)13.3%2.0 PA
7Noelvi Marte (R)10.6%2.0 PA
8Jose Trevino (R)9.9%2.0 PA
9Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0 PA
Nick Lodolo · LHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
NYM lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Carson Benge (L)15.0%3.0 PA
2Bo Bichette (R)13.9%3.0 PA
3Juan Soto (L)12.7%3.0 PA
4Marcus Semien (R)10.4%3.0 PA
5Mark Vientos (R)9.7%3.0 PA
6Francisco Alvarez (R)9.7%3.0 PA
7A.J. Ewing (L)8.3%2.0 PA
8Luis Torrens (R)9.8%2.0 PA
9Zack Short (R)12.1%2.0 PA