‹ Earned Runs · Thursday, June 18, 2026
NYM @ PHI Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, June 18, 2026
NYM
New York Mets
6–4
Final
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
◆ Citizens Bank ParkElevation 20 ftCenter Field 401 ft☀ 89°F Partly CloudyWind 21 mph, Out To RF
Sean Manaea · LHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.4 BF
Expected batters faced16.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
PHI lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Trea Turner (R)14.0%2.0 PA
2Kyle Schwarber (L)13.2%2.0 PA
3Bryce Harper (L)11.4%2.0 PA
4Alec Bohm (R)8.8%2.0 PA
5Brandon Marsh (L)12.0%2.0 PA
6Edmundo Sosa (R)12.3%2.0 PA
7Bryson Stott (L)10.9%2.0 PA
8J.T. Realmuto (R)9.4%1.4 PA
9Derek Hill (R)11.6%1.0 PA
Aaron Nola · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
NYM lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Carson Benge (L)12.2%3.0 PA
2Bo Bichette (R)11.3%3.0 PA
3Juan Soto (L)12.9%3.0 PA
4Jared Young (L)11.2%2.6 PA
5A.J. Ewing (L)13.2%2.0 PA
6Marcus Semien (R)10.6%2.0 PA
7Brett Baty (L)9.4%2.0 PA
8MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0 PA
9Francisco Alvarez (R)10.7%2.0 PA