Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 18, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 2 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.1 BF
Expected batters faced16.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.3%2.0
2. David Fry (R)9.4%2.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (R)11.1%2.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.4%2.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L)10.5%2.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)10.3%2.0
7. Stuart Fairchild (R)14.1%2.0
8. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%1.1
9. Austin Hedges (R)10.6%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.4 BF
Expected batters faced16.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)14.0%2.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)13.2%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.4%2.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.8%2.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)12.0%2.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)12.3%2.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)10.9%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)9.4%1.4
9. Derek Hill (R)11.6%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.6 BF
Expected batters faced16.6
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)15.6%2.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)16.3%2.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.2%2.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)12.5%2.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)12.0%2.0
6. Jonah Heim (L)10.3%2.0
7. Carlos Cortes (L)9.7%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)8.8%1.6
9. Jeff McNeil (L)10.3%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.4 BF
Expected batters faced18.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)9.5%2.4
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)13.6%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.1%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.6%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)11.9%2.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)10.9%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)9.9%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)9.9%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.2%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)10.6%3.0
4. Starling Marte (R)9.7%2.9
5. Salvador Perez (R)10.8%2.0
6. Carter Jensen (L)11.3%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)8.9%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (R)11.2%2.0
9. Michael Massey (L)12.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.4%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)9.6%3.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)11.8%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.0%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.8%2.4
6. Josh Smith (L)9.7%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)10.4%2.0
8. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.2%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)12.2%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.3%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)12.9%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.2%2.6
5. A.J. Ewing (L)13.2%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)10.6%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)9.4%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)12.1%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)10.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)12.3%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.8%2.5
6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)12.8%2.0
7. Caleb Durbin (R)11.4%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)10.7%2.0
9. Andruw Monasterio (R)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)12.9%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jesús Sánchez (L)11.9%3.0
4. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.5
5. Ernie Clement (R)12.2%2.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)12.3%2.0
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.0%2.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)13.1%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)8.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)13.9%3.0
2. Nick Madrigal (R)11.4%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)12.7%3.0
4. Vaughn Grissom (R)9.2%3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R)12.2%3.0
6. Christian Moore (R)12.9%2.3
7. Denzer Guzman (R)10.4%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.4%2.0
9. Jose Siri (R)11.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)10.2%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)13.7%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)15.7%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)12.3%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)10.7%2.5
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.5%2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)13.4%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)9.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)15.2%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)13.5%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)12.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)12.7%3.0
5. Edgar Quero (R)10.1%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)11.7%2.5
7. Luisangel Acuña (R)10.5%2.0
8. Junior Perez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)8.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.9%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)14.2%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)13.6%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)14.8%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)10.3%2.3
6. Eli White (R)13.3%2.0
7. Jorge Mateo (R)15.9%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)10.6%2.0
9. Sandy León (L)8.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)13.1%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)15.2%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)10.9%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)13.6%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)10.7%3.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)13.5%2.1
7. Blake Perkins (R)13.1%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)16.7%3.0
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.6%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)14.2%3.0
4. Jasson Domínguez (L)13.3%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)13.8%2.6
6. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)11.6%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)10.8%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)13.7%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)17.1%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)15.0%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)10.1%3.0
5. Josh Bell (L)12.5%3.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)11.3%3.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)8.8%2.2
8. Tristan Gray (L)9.3%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)12.8%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)11.4%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.1%3.0
4. Dominic Canzone (L)13.6%3.0
5. Cole Young (L)10.9%3.0
6. Colt Emerson (L)14.3%3.0
7. Mitch Garver (R)11.5%2.9
8. Victor Robles (R)11.9%2.0
9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)14.0%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)13.5%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)12.5%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)14.4%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)12.8%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)12.7%2.4
7. Colton Cowser (L)13.3%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)11.9%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)12.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
13 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Jack LeiterP
TEXvsMIN· proj #16
6ERFinal
2
Ryan JohnsonP
LAA@ATH· proj #3
5ERFinal
T2
Matthew LiberatoreP
STL@KC· proj #5
5ERFinal
4
Trey YesavageP
TOR@BOS· proj #8
3ERFinal
T4
Sonny GrayP
BOSvsTOR· proj #9
3ERFinal
T4
Noah CameronP
KCvsSTL· proj #11
3ERFinal
T4
Shane BazP
BAL@SEA· proj #17
3ERFinal
8
Sean ManaeaP
NYM@PHI· proj #2
2ERFinal
T8
Aaron NolaP
PHIvsNYM· proj #7
2ERFinal
T8
Parker MessickP
CLE@MIL· proj #14
2ERFinal
11
Shane DrohanP
MILvsCLE· proj #1
1ERFinal
T11
Ryan WeathersP
NYYvsCWS· proj #12
1ERFinal
T11
Sean BurkeP
CWS@NYY· proj #15
1ERFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Shane Drohan (MIL) is the top earned runs spot on the Thursday, June 18, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER, with Sean Manaea (NYM) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Shane Drohan
Shane Drohan (MIL) tops the Thursday, June 18, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER vs CLE. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Sean Manaea (NYM) (92) — about 1.8 ER vs PHI.
Ryan Johnson (LAA) (85) — about 1.9 ER vs ATH.
Martín Pérez (ATL) (79) — about 2.0 ER vs SF.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) (60) — about 2.2 ER vs KC.
Joe Ryan (MIN) (54) — about 2.3 ER vs TEX.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.3 ER. Shane Drohan finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Thursday, June 18, 2026)?
Shane Drohan (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER against CLE.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, June 18, 2026: Shane Drohan (~1.7 ER), Sean Manaea (~1.8 ER), Ryan Johnson (~1.9 ER), Martín Pérez (~2.0 ER), Matthew Liberatore (~2.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
