‹ Earned Runs · Friday, June 19, 2026
BOS @ SEA Earned Runs matchups · Friday, June 19, 2026
BOS
Boston Red Sox
6–2
Final
SEA
Seattle Mariners
◆ T-Mobile ParkElevation 10 ftCenter Field 405 ft☀ 80°F ClearWind 5 mph, L To R
Ranger Suarez · LHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-175
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+127-169
We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
SEA lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Rob Refsnyder (R)11.7%3.0 PA
2Cal Raleigh (R)10.3%3.0 PA
3Julio Rodríguez (R)12.6%3.0 PA
4Josh Naylor (L)10.8%3.0 PA
5Dominic Canzone (L)9.1%2.5 PA
6Cole Young (L)9.4%2.0 PA
7Victor Robles (R)11.3%2.0 PA
8Colt Emerson (L)11.8%2.0 PA
9Weston Wilson (R)11.7%2.0 PA
Bryce Miller · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.5%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-119-112
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 1.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
BOS lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Mickey Gasper (L)10.9%3.0 PA
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.0%3.0 PA
3Wilyer Abreu (L)9.9%3.0 PA
4Willson Contreras (R)11.6%2.6 PA
5Jarren Duran (L)11.2%2.0 PA
6Caleb Durbin (R)11.2%2.0 PA
7Marcelo Mayer (L)9.2%2.0 PA
8Carlos Narváez (R)9.8%2.0 PA
9Andruw Monasterio (R)8.6%2.0 PA