Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Friday, June 19, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 1 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.6 BF
Expected batters faced9.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection0.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.1%1.6
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.0%1.0
3. Jonny DeLuca (R)12.6%1.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)12.6%1.0
5. Cedric Mullins (L)9.0%1.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)10.0%1.0
7. Richie Palacios (L)11.8%1.0
8. Taylor Walls (R)10.0%1.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)9.4%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.5%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)10.9%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)9.9%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.6%2.6
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.2%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.2%2.0
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)9.2%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)9.8%2.0
9. Andruw Monasterio (R)8.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-119-112
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 1.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.2%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.0 BF
Expected batters faced9.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.9%1.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)10.4%1.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)11.3%1.0
4. Riley Greene (L)10.2%1.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.9%1.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.9%1.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.1%1.0
8. Colt Keith (L)14.1%1.0
9. Trei Cruz (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+175-250
FANFanatics+175-255
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.0%
vs RHB7.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)10.7%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)14.6%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)11.6%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.0%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.1%2.8
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)10.8%2.0
7. Ty France (R)9.7%2.0
8. Will Wagner (L)11.8%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-119-112
We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.9 BF
Expected batters faced11.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.9%2.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)14.1%2.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)11.6%1.9
4. Rafael Devers (L)12.2%1.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.8%1.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.6%1.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)11.5%1.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)12.6%1.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)8.1%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 1.2 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.6 BF
Expected batters faced19.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)12.5%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.2%2.6
3. Jesús Sánchez (L)11.7%2.0
4. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)9.2%2.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)12.1%2.0
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.5%2.0
8. Davis Schneider (R)13.1%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)9.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+115
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-129-103
We project 1.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.5%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.4%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)9.5%3.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)12.1%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)9.9%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)12.5%2.3
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.1%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)10.3%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Elias Díaz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+103-137
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)13.9%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)12.5%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)13.4%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)9.1%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)10.9%2.9
6. Nick Loftin (R)11.4%2.0
7. John Rave (L)12.5%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (L)10.3%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-118-113
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Rob Refsnyder (R)11.7%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (R)10.3%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.6%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)10.8%3.0
5. Dominic Canzone (L)9.1%2.5
6. Cole Young (L)9.4%2.0
7. Victor Robles (R)11.3%2.0
8. Colt Emerson (L)11.8%2.0
9. Weston Wilson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-175
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+127-169
We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate5.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB5.9%
vs RHB7.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)15.0%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)15.1%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)13.6%3.0
4. Dominic Smith (L)12.4%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.8%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)10.2%2.7
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)10.5%2.0
8. Eli White (R)12.9%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)15.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+116-154
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 1.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.7%
vs RHB7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.3%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)14.2%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)12.2%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.0%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)12.6%3.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.7%2.5
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)9.2%2.0
8. Matt McLain (R)11.2%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+110
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-169+126
We project 1.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.4 BF
Expected batters faced18.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)12.6%2.4
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.8%2.0
3. Brice Turang (L)10.7%2.0
4. William Contreras (R)15.4%2.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)9.8%2.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)14.2%2.0
7. Blake Perkins (R)12.8%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+125
DKDraftKings-175+131
We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.3 BF
Expected batters faced18.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)18.6%2.3
2. Luis García Jr. (L)13.2%2.0
3. José Tena (L)11.8%2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.1%2.0
5. Keibert Ruiz (L)12.3%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)13.9%2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)12.3%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)10.5%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-121-110
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)14.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.1%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.8%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.0%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)11.8%3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)11.7%2.5
7. Cam Smith (R)10.4%2.0
8. Joey Loperfido (L)13.3%2.0
9. Jake Meyers (R)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-128-104
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)12.3%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)13.2%3.0
3. Chase Meidroth (R)14.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)13.3%3.0
5. Edgar Quero (R)9.8%3.0
6. Junior Perez (R)11.7%2.3
7. Sam Antonacci (L)10.3%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)10.2%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)8.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-185
DKDraftKings+121-161
We project 2.2 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.4 BF
Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.9%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)13.9%3.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)8.9%2.4
4. Riley Greene (L)12.2%2.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)12.0%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.3%2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)9.2%2.0
8. Colt Keith (L)12.7%2.0
9. Trei Cruz (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.5%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.2 BF
Expected batters faced19.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)10.4%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.1%2.2
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.8%2.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)10.1%2.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%2.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)10.3%2.0
7. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
DKDraftKings+126-167
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)16.4%3.0
2. Jasson Domínguez (L)12.6%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)14.0%3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.6%2.2
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)14.0%2.0
6. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0
7. Anthony Volpe (R)12.3%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)11.3%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-159+119
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)16.0%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)17.1%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)12.1%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)12.7%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%3.0
6. Carlos Cortes (L)9.1%3.0
7. Lawrence Butler (L)12.7%2.2
8. Henry Bolte (R)8.3%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+126-168
We project 2.5 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.4%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)10.8%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.2%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)14.4%3.0
6. Matt Shaw (R)11.5%2.4
7. Nico Hoerner (R)8.1%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)9.3%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+117-156
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.3%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)12.6%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)11.7%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)14.5%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)13.0%2.8
5. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%2.0
6. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.6%2.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)14.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-118
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-120-111
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB7.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.8%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)15.1%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)12.9%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)9.7%3.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)11.8%2.8
7. Victor Caratini (L)9.5%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)9.2%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)12.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
DKDraftKings+124-165
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)14.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)14.4%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)15.0%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.0%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)13.0%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.9%2.1
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)9.4%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-109-122
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)14.3%3.0
2. Owen Caissie (L)10.7%3.0
3. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.2%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Otto Lopez (R)14.6%2.3
6. Jakob Marsee (L)11.2%2.0
7. Connor Norby (R)10.7%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+111-148
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)10.1%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.8%3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)11.8%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)12.6%3.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.2%2.5
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)13.8%2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)11.9%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+125-165
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.8%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)13.6%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.7%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)12.2%3.0
4. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%3.0
5. Christian Moore (R)11.1%2.8
6. Denzer Guzman (R)9.8%2.0
7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.1%2.0
8. Wade Meckler (L)9.8%2.0
9. Jose Siri (R)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-139+105
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB14.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.6 BF
Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Tucker (L)14.0%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.5%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.2%2.6
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.5%2.0
5. Max Muncy (L)15.5%2.0
6. Tommy Edman (L)11.3%2.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)11.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)12.6%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140-105
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-132+100
We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.6%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)14.1%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.0%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)11.4%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)13.7%3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)11.7%2.7
6. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%2.0
7. Ildemaro Vargas (R)13.8%2.0
8. Jordan Lawlar (R)12.8%2.0
9. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-124-107
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.6%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.1%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)13.5%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)14.3%3.0
4. Samuel Basallo (L)12.2%3.0
5. Leody Taveras (L)12.1%3.0
6. Colton Cowser (L)13.2%2.1
7. Coby Mayo (R)11.2%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)13.4%2.0
9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)13.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+127-169
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.7%
vs RHB15.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)12.4%3.0
2. Nick Gonzales (R)13.4%3.0
3. Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.2%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)9.4%3.0
5. Brandon Lowe (L)12.2%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (R)11.7%2.7
7. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)12.0%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-108-123
We project 3.7 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
25 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Kevin GausmanP
TOR@CHC· proj #20
7ERFinal
2
Jacob deGromP
TEXvsSD· proj #4
6ERFinal
T2
Randy VásquezP
SD@TEX· proj #7
6ERFinal
T2
Jeffrey SpringsP
ATHvsLAA· proj #26
6ERFinal
5
Michael McGreevyP
STL@KC· proj #8
5ERFinal
6
Rhett LowderP
CIN@NYY· proj #18
4ERFinal
T6
José SorianoP
LAA@ATH· proj #19
4ERFinal
8
Tanner BibeeP
CLE@HOU· proj #14
3ERFinal
T8
Tarik SkubalP
DETvsCWS· proj #15
3ERFinal
T8
Tatsuya ImaiP
HOUvsCLE· proj #17
3ERFinal
T8
Trey GibsonP
BAL@LAD· proj #27
3ERFinal
T8
Connor PrielippP
MIN@AZ· proj #28
3ERFinal
T8
Roki SasakiP
LADvsBAL· proj #29
3ERFinal
14
Brandon EisertP
CWS@DET· proj #3
2ERFinal
T14
Ben BrownP
CHCvsTOR· proj #6
2ERFinal
T14
Jacob MisiorowskiP
MIL@ATL· proj #10
2ERFinal
T14
Griffin JaxP
TBvsWSH· proj #13
2ERFinal
T14
Erick FeddeP
CWS@DET· proj #16
2ERFinal
T14
Bubba ChandlerP
PIT@COL· proj #21
2ERFinal
T14
Landen RouppP
SF@MIA· proj #24
2ERFinal
T14
Kyle FreelandP
COLvsPIT· proj #30
2ERFinal
22
Bryce MillerP
SEAvsBOS· proj #2
1ERFinal
T22
Lake BacharP
MIAvsSF· proj #5
1ERFinal
T22
Martín PérezP
ATLvsMIL· proj #12
1ERFinal
T22
Seth LugoP
KCvsSTL· proj #23
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
3/475%
season 100%-25 pts+108% ROI
Top 10
6/967%
season 71%-4 pts+44% ROI
Top 20
12/1963%
season building
Top 50
16/2857%
season building
Full slate
16/2857%
season 67%-10 pts+38% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026
PJ Poulin (WSH) is the top earned runs spot on the Friday, June 19, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.9 ER, with Bryce Miller (SEA) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: PJ Poulin
PJ Poulin (WSH) tops the Friday, June 19, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.9 ER vs TB. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Bryce Miller (SEA) (100) — about 1.7 ER vs BOS.
Brandon Eisert (CWS) (95) — about 1.1 ER vs DET.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) (89) — about 2.0 ER vs SD.
Lake Bachar (MIA) (89) — about 1.2 ER vs SF.
Ben Brown (CHC) (85) — about 1.6 ER vs TOR.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.5 ER. PJ Poulin finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Friday, June 19, 2026)?
PJ Poulin (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 0.9 ER against TB.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Friday, June 19, 2026: PJ Poulin (~0.9 ER), Bryce Miller (~1.7 ER), Brandon Eisert (~1.1 ER), Jacob deGrom (~2.0 ER), Lake Bachar (~1.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
