MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Friday, June 19, 2026

CIN @ NYY Earned Runs matchups · Friday, June 19, 2026

CIN
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
05
Final
NYY
New York Yankees
NYY
Yankee StadiumElevation 55 ftCenter Field 408 ft 77°F Partly CloudyWind 15 mph, Out To RF

CIN Rhett Lowder · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-159+119
FANFanatics-165+115

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

NYY lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Ben Rice (L)16.4%3.0 PA
2Jasson Domínguez (L)12.6%3.0 PA
3Cody Bellinger (L)14.0%3.0 PA
4Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.6%2.2 PA
5Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)14.0%2.0 PA
6Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0 PA
7Anthony Volpe (R)12.3%2.0 PA
8Ryan McMahon (L)11.3%2.0 PA
9J.C. Escarra (L)10.6%2.0 PA

NYY Cam Schlittler · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate6.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB6.7%
vs RHB7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.8 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+110
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-169+126

We project 1.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

CIN lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Blake Dunn (R)11.3%3.0 PA
2JJ Bleday (L)14.2%3.0 PA
3Sal Stewart (R)12.2%3.0 PA
4Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.0%3.0 PA
5Spencer Steer (R)12.6%3.0 PA
6Eugenio Suárez (R)10.7%2.5 PA
7Tyler Stephenson (R)9.2%2.0 PA
8Matt McLain (R)11.2%2.0 PA
9Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0 PA