‹ Earned Runs · Friday, June 19, 2026
STL @ KC Earned Runs matchups · Friday, June 19, 2026
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
5–6
Final
KC
Kansas City Royals
◆ Kauffman StadiumElevation 856 ftCenter Field 410 ft☀ 80°F CloudyWind 0 mph, Calm
Michael McGreevy · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-118-113
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
KC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Carter Jensen (L)13.9%3.0 PA
2Lane Thomas (R)12.5%3.0 PA
3Jac Caglianone (L)13.4%3.0 PA
4Salvador Perez (R)9.1%3.0 PA
5Michael Massey (L)10.9%2.9 PA
6Nick Loftin (R)11.4%2.0 PA
7John Rave (L)12.5%2.0 PA
8Isaac Collins (L)10.3%2.0 PA
9Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%2.0 PA
Seth Lugo · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-109-122
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
STL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1JJ Wetherholt (L)14.7%3.0 PA
2Iván Herrera (R)14.4%3.0 PA
3Alec Burleson (L)15.0%3.0 PA
4Jordan Walker (R)11.0%3.0 PA
5Lars Nootbaar (L)13.0%3.0 PA
6Masyn Winn (R)11.9%2.1 PA
7Jimmy Crooks (L)9.4%2.0 PA
8Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Nathan Church (L)11.8%2.0 PA