‹ Earned Runs · Friday, June 19, 2026
PIT @ COL Earned Runs matchups · Friday, June 19, 2026
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
3–4
Final
COL
Colorado Rockies
◆ Coors FieldElevation 5,190 ftCenter Field 415 ft☀ 81°F Partly CloudyWind 8 mph, In From LF
Bubba Chandler · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.3%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-118
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-120-111
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
COL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Jake McCarthy (L)12.6%3.0 PA
2Willi Castro (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Hunter Goodman (R)14.5%3.0 PA
4TJ Rumfield (L)13.0%2.8 PA
5Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%2.0 PA
6Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0 PA
7Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.6%2.0 PA
9Kyle Karros (R)14.6%2.0 PA
Kyle Freeland · LHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.7%
vs RHB15.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-108-123
We project 3.7 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
PIT lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Spencer Horwitz (L)12.4%3.0 PA
2Nick Gonzales (R)13.4%3.0 PA
3Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.2%3.0 PA
4Marcell Ozuna (R)9.4%3.0 PA
5Brandon Lowe (L)12.2%3.0 PA
6Endy Rodríguez (R)11.7%2.7 PA
7Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0 PA
8Jared Triolo (R)12.0%2.0 PA
9Billy Cook (R)11.7%2.0 PA