‹ Earned Runs · Friday, June 19, 2026
TOR @ CHC Earned Runs matchups · Friday, June 19, 2026
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
2–16
Final
CHC
Chicago Cubs
◆ Wrigley FieldElevation 595 ftCenter Field 400 ft☀ 71°F SunnyWind 6 mph, L To R
Kevin Gausman · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+117-156
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
CHC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.4%3.0 PA
2Alex Bregman (R)10.8%3.0 PA
3Michael Busch (L)11.2%3.0 PA
4Seiya Suzuki (R)12.7%3.0 PA
5Ian Happ (L)14.4%3.0 PA
6Matt Shaw (R)11.5%2.4 PA
7Nico Hoerner (R)8.1%2.0 PA
8Carson Kelly (R)9.3%2.0 PA
9Dansby Swanson (R)12.4%2.0 PA
Ben Brown · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.6 BF
Expected batters faced19.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+115
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-129-103
We project 1.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
TOR lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1George Springer (R)12.5%3.0 PA
2Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.2%2.6 PA
3Jesús Sánchez (L)11.7%2.0 PA
4Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0 PA
5Alejandro Kirk (R)9.2%2.0 PA
6Nathan Lukes (L)12.1%2.0 PA
7Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.5%2.0 PA
8Davis Schneider (R)13.1%2.0 PA
9Andrés Giménez (L)9.3%2.0 PA