‹ Earned Runs · Friday, June 19, 2026
MIL @ ATL Earned Runs matchups · Friday, June 19, 2026
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
2–3
Final
ATL
Atlanta Braves
◆ Truist ParkElevation 1,001 ftCenter Field 400 ft☀ 83°F Partly CloudyWind 9 mph, Out To CF
Jacob Misiorowski · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate5.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB5.9%
vs RHB7.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+116-154
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 1.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
ATL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Drake Baldwin (L)15.0%3.0 PA
2Ozzie Albies (L)15.1%3.0 PA
3Matt Olson (L)13.6%3.0 PA
4Dominic Smith (L)12.4%3.0 PA
5Mauricio Dubón (R)11.8%3.0 PA
6Austin Riley (R)10.2%2.7 PA
7Mike Yastrzemski (L)10.5%2.0 PA
8Eli White (R)12.9%2.0 PA
9Jorge Mateo (R)15.9%2.0 PA
Martín Pérez · LHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.4 BF
Expected batters faced18.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+125
DKDraftKings-175+131
We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
MIL lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Christian Yelich (L)12.6%2.4 PA
2Jackson Chourio (R)14.8%2.0 PA
3Brice Turang (L)10.7%2.0 PA
4William Contreras (R)15.4%2.0 PA
5Garrett Mitchell (L)9.8%2.0 PA
6Andrew Vaughn (R)14.2%2.0 PA
7Blake Perkins (R)12.8%2.0 PA
8Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Joey Ortiz (R)9.8%2.0 PA