‹ Earned Runs · Friday, June 19, 2026
MIN @ AZ Earned Runs matchups · Friday, June 19, 2026
MIN
Minnesota Twins
5–9
Final
AZ
Arizona Diamondbacks
◆ Chase FieldElevation 1,086 ftCenter Field 407 ft☀ 77°F Roof ClosedWind 0 mph, None
Connor Prielipp · LHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.6%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-124-107
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
AZ lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Ketel Marte (R)14.1%3.0 PA
2Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.0%3.0 PA
3Corbin Carroll (L)11.4%3.0 PA
4Gabriel Moreno (R)13.7%3.0 PA
5Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)11.7%2.7 PA
6Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%2.0 PA
7Ildemaro Vargas (R)13.8%2.0 PA
8Jordan Lawlar (R)12.8%2.0 PA
9LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0 PA
Michael Soroka · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB7.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
DKDraftKings+124-165
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
MIN lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Trevor Larnach (L)14.8%3.0 PA
2Byron Buxton (R)16.9%3.0 PA
3Kody Clemens (L)15.1%3.0 PA
4Josh Bell (L)12.9%3.0 PA
5Royce Lewis (R)9.7%3.0 PA
6Brooks Lee (L)11.8%2.8 PA
7Victor Caratini (L)9.5%2.0 PA
8Tristan Gray (L)9.2%2.0 PA
9Luke Keaschall (R)12.6%2.0 PA