MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Sunday, June 21, 2026

BOS @ SEA Earned Runs matchups · Sunday, June 21, 2026

BOS
BOS
Boston Red Sox
vs
4:10 PM EDT
SEA
Seattle Mariners
SEA
T-Mobile ParkElevation 10 ftCenter Field 405 ft

BOS Payton Tolle · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

SEA lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Rob Refsnyder (R)10.7%3.0 PA
2Cal Raleigh (R)10.3%3.0 PA
3Julio Rodríguez (R)12.6%3.0 PA
4Josh Naylor (L)10.8%3.0 PA
5Dominic Canzone (L)9.1%3.0 PA
6Cole Young (L)9.4%2.9 PA
7Victor Robles (R)11.3%2.0 PA
8Colt Emerson (L)11.8%2.0 PA
9Weston Wilson (R)12.3%2.0 PA

SEA Logan Gilbert · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

BOS lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Mickey Gasper (L)10.9%3.0 PA
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.0%3.0 PA
3Wilyer Abreu (L)9.9%3.0 PA
4Willson Contreras (R)11.6%3.0 PA
5Jarren Duran (L)11.2%3.0 PA
6Caleb Durbin (R)11.2%2.2 PA
7Marcelo Mayer (L)9.2%2.0 PA
8Carlos Narváez (R)9.8%2.0 PA
9Andruw Monasterio (R)8.6%2.0 PA