Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 29 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.3 BF
Expected batters faced17.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.1%2.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.0%2.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)9.0%2.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)12.6%2.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)11.8%2.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)10.0%2.0
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.4%2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)9.4%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)10.0%1.3
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)10.9%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)9.9%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.6%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.2%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.2%2.2
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)9.2%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)9.8%2.0
9. Andruw Monasterio (R)8.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.4%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)8.1%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.7%3.0
4. Michael Busch (L)11.2%3.0
5. Alex Bregman (R)10.8%3.0
6. Ian Happ (L)14.4%2.7
7. Matt Shaw (R)11.5%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)10.8%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.9 BF
Expected batters faced18.9
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.8%2.9
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%2.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)15.4%2.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.2%2.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)9.9%2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)9.8%2.0
7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jordan Lawlar (R)12.1%2.0
9. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB7.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)16.4%3.0
2. Amed Rosario (R)13.0%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.6%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)14.0%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (L)12.6%2.8
6. José Caballero (R)11.0%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)14.0%2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)12.3%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)13.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jakob Marsee (L)11.2%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.6%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.7%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.2%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)10.7%3.0
7. Leo Jiménez (R)10.5%2.7
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)13.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.7%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)14.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)14.4%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)15.0%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.0%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)13.0%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.9%3.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)9.4%2.3
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Rob Refsnyder (R)10.7%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (R)10.3%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.6%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)10.8%3.0
5. Dominic Canzone (L)9.1%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)9.4%2.9
7. Victor Robles (R)11.3%2.0
8. Colt Emerson (L)11.8%2.0
9. Weston Wilson (R)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.4 BF
Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)14.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)13.5%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.2%2.4
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%2.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)8.6%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.8%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)9.2%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)16.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)13.5%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)13.0%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)17.2%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.6%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)10.5%3.0
6. Carlos Cortes (L)11.4%2.3
7. Lawrence Butler (L)10.7%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)15.1%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.7%
vs RHB12.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.3%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)14.2%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)12.2%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.0%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)12.6%2.2
6. Noelvi Marte (R)10.0%2.0
7. Matt McLain (R)11.2%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)10.5%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)14.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.1%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.8%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.0%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)11.8%2.1
6. Yainer Diaz (R)10.2%2.0
7. Cam Smith (R)10.4%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)10.4%2.0
9. Brice Matthews (R)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB16.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.1 BF
Expected batters faced16.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)14.1%2.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)10.7%2.0
3. Jo Adell (R)13.5%2.0
4. Oswald Peraza (R)7.6%2.0
5. Christian Moore (R)10.3%2.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)11.2%2.0
7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.3%2.0
8. Wade Meckler (L)13.3%1.1
9. Jose Siri (R)14.5%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.6%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.9 BF
Expected batters faced16.9
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.9%2.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)14.1%2.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)11.6%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)12.2%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.8%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.6%2.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)11.5%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)12.6%1.9
9. Eric Haase (R)13.5%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)12.2%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.3%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)13.5%3.0
4. Marcus Semien (R)10.5%3.0
5. Eric Wagaman (R)11.1%3.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.2%2.8
7. Mark Vientos (R)10.1%2.0
8. Luis Torrens (R)11.5%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)9.8%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)9.4%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)14.5%3.0
4. Brandon Valenzuela (R)9.7%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.3%3.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)10.9%2.5
7. Davis Schneider (R)13.1%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.4%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)13.9%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)12.5%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)13.4%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)9.1%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)10.9%3.0
6. Nick Loftin (R)11.4%3.0
7. John Rave (L)12.5%2.4
8. Isaac Collins (L)10.3%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)20.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.7%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)14.2%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.9%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)13.0%2.0
5. Randal Grichuk (R)13.7%2.0
6. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)13.3%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)18.6%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)12.0%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)10.6%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.1%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)13.9%2.8
7. Jacob Young (R)12.0%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (L)12.3%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.9%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)13.9%3.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)8.9%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)12.2%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)12.0%3.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.3%2.5
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)9.2%2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R)10.6%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.4%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.3%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)14.2%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.2%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)10.3%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)11.6%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)10.5%2.0
7. Eli White (R)11.6%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)12.7%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)14.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Tucker (L)14.0%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.5%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.2%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.5%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)15.5%3.0
6. Tommy Edman (L)11.3%3.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)13.0%2.2
8. Dalton Rushing (L)12.6%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.4%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.7 BF
Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.1%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)13.5%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)14.3%2.7
4. Samuel Basallo (L)12.2%2.0
5. Leody Taveras (L)12.1%2.0
6. Colton Cowser (L)13.2%2.0
7. Coby Mayo (R)11.2%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)13.4%2.0
9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)13.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.9 BF
Expected batters faced25.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)10.7%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)14.6%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.0%3.0
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)10.8%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.6%3.0
6. Ty France (R)9.7%3.0
7. Nick Solak (R)11.1%3.0
8. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.9
9. Blake Hunt (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.8%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)15.1%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)12.9%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)9.7%3.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)11.8%2.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)9.5%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)9.2%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)12.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.3%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.2 BF
Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)10.4%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.1%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.8%2.2
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)10.1%2.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.4%2.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.3%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)9.7%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.4%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)12.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.3%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.2%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.2%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%2.5
6. Tyler Callihan (L)12.8%2.0
7. Jake Mangum (L)10.4%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)10.2%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)14.6%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)16.4%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)12.7%3.0
4. Gary Sánchez (R)14.4%3.0
5. Andrew Vaughn (R)9.4%3.0
6. Blake Perkins (L)12.9%2.9
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)15.2%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)12.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB16.8%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 ER
Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)12.6%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)13.4%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)13.0%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)14.5%2.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)12.8%2.0
6. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)11.2%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.6%2.0
9. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
No ER recorded yet today — leaders fill in live as games get underway.
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER, with Logan Gilbert (SEA) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Andrew Alvarez
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) tops the Sunday, June 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER vs TB. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (89) — about 2.0 ER vs BOS.
Dylan Cease (TOR) (85) — about 2.1 ER vs CHC.
Mike Paredes (MIN) (85) — about 2.1 ER vs AZ.
Chase Burns (CIN) (84) — about 2.1 ER vs NYY.
Logan Webb (SF) (71) — about 2.3 ER vs MIA.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER against TB.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, June 21, 2026: Andrew Alvarez (~1.9 ER), Logan Gilbert (~2.0 ER), Dylan Cease (~2.1 ER), Mike Paredes (~2.1 ER), Chase Burns (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
