MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Sunday, June 21, 2026

STL @ KC Earned Runs matchups · Sunday, June 21, 2026

STL
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
vs
2:10 PM EDT
KC
Kansas City Royals
KC
Kauffman StadiumElevation 856 ftCenter Field 410 ft

STL Dustin May · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

KC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Carter Jensen (L)13.9%3.0 PA
2Lane Thomas (R)12.5%3.0 PA
3Jac Caglianone (L)13.4%3.0 PA
4Salvador Perez (R)9.1%3.0 PA
5Michael Massey (L)10.9%3.0 PA
6Nick Loftin (R)11.4%3.0 PA
7John Rave (L)12.5%2.4 PA
8Isaac Collins (L)10.3%2.0 PA
9Tyler Tolbert (R)20.9%2.0 PA

KC Stephen Kolek · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB6.7%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

STL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1JJ Wetherholt (L)14.7%3.0 PA
2Iván Herrera (R)14.4%3.0 PA
3Alec Burleson (L)15.0%3.0 PA
4Jordan Walker (R)11.0%3.0 PA
5Lars Nootbaar (L)13.0%3.0 PA
6Masyn Winn (R)11.9%3.0 PA
7Jimmy Crooks (L)9.4%2.3 PA
8Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Nathan Church (L)11.8%2.0 PA