MatchWiz Plays
Hits Allowed · Friday, June 19, 2026

STL @ KC Hits Allowed matchups · Friday, June 19, 2026

STL
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
56
Final
KC
Kansas City Royals
KC
Kauffman StadiumElevation 856 ftCenter Field 410 ft 80°F CloudyWind 0 mph, Calm

STL Michael McGreevy · RHP

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-145+109

We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

KC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Carter Jensen (L)21.9%3.0 PA
2Lane Thomas (R)20.0%3.0 PA
3Jac Caglianone (L)23.0%3.0 PA
4Salvador Perez (R)20.0%3.0 PA
5Michael Massey (L)23.7%2.9 PA
6Nick Loftin (R)21.4%2.0 PA
7John Rave (L)22.1%2.0 PA
8Isaac Collins (L)20.0%2.0 PA
9Tyler Tolbert (R)22.5%2.0 PA

KC Seth Lugo · RHP

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-151+113
FANFanatics-135-105

We project 5.5 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

STL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1JJ Wetherholt (L)22.7%3.0 PA
2Iván Herrera (R)21.4%3.0 PA
3Alec Burleson (L)27.5%3.0 PA
4Jordan Walker (R)24.5%3.0 PA
5Lars Nootbaar (L)22.2%3.0 PA
6Masyn Winn (R)21.6%2.1 PA
7Jimmy Crooks (L)18.8%2.0 PA
8Blaze Jordan (R)22.5%2.0 PA
9Nathan Church (L)24.0%2.0 PA