Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Friday, June 19, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 1 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.6 BF
Expected batters faced9.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)23.8%1.6
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.6%1.0
3. Jonny DeLuca (R)23.0%1.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)22.9%1.0
5. Cedric Mullins (L)21.9%1.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)20.1%1.0
7. Richie Palacios (L)22.3%1.0
8. Taylor Walls (R)19.7%1.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)21.1%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB19.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)22.5%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)24.8%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)23.7%2.6
5. Jarren Duran (L)20.8%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)19.0%2.0
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.2%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)19.8%2.0
9. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-136+103
We project 4.0 H vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.9%
vs RHB19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.2 BF
Expected batters faced19.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)23.1%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)21.0%2.2
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)22.9%2.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)18.6%2.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)22.5%2.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)21.6%2.0
7. Kahlil Watson (L)22.5%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)22.5%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)21.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-152+114
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 4.2 H vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.0 BF
Expected batters faced9.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)23.9%1.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)20.7%1.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)22.7%1.0
4. Riley Greene (L)21.7%1.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)20.1%1.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)21.7%1.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.8%1.0
8. Colt Keith (L)21.4%1.0
9. Trei Cruz (R)22.5%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.4%
vs RHB18.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)24.1%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)22.5%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)21.9%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)23.3%2.8
5. Tyler Freeman (R)23.5%2.0
6. Cole Carrigg (L)22.5%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.5%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)20.9%2.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)23.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-145+109
We project 4.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB17.9%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.9 BF
Expected batters faced11.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness24.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)28.3%2.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.8%2.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)23.3%1.9
4. Rafael Devers (L)22.8%1.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)28.5%1.0
6. Willy Adames (R)21.8%1.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)24.2%1.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)21.0%1.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)21.1%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 2.4 H vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.1%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)25.0%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)20.5%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)19.0%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)20.3%2.8
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.4%2.0
7. Ty France (R)19.7%2.0
8. Will Wagner (L)22.6%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-109-122
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 4.7 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)22.8%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)26.8%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)23.3%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)20.0%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)20.7%3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)22.5%2.5
7. Cam Smith (R)21.4%2.0
8. Joey Loperfido (L)20.8%2.0
9. Jake Meyers (R)22.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-110-120
We project 4.9 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)21.9%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)20.0%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.0%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)20.0%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)23.7%2.9
6. Nick Loftin (R)21.4%2.0
7. John Rave (L)22.1%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (L)20.0%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-145+109
We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate14.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB14.9%
vs RHB17.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)23.9%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)21.0%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.2%3.0
4. Dominic Smith (L)24.1%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)25.3%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)19.4%2.7
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.0%2.0
8. Eli White (R)21.7%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-152+114
We project 3.8 H vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.4 BF
Expected batters faced18.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)22.7%2.4
2. Jackson Chourio (R)28.4%2.0
3. Brice Turang (L)19.1%2.0
4. William Contreras (R)26.2%2.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)19.3%2.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)29.0%2.0
7. Blake Perkins (R)22.4%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.5%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-140+105
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 3.9 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB19.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.6 BF
Expected batters faced19.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)21.7%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)23.1%2.6
3. Jesús Sánchez (L)26.3%2.0
4. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.5%2.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)22.1%2.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)27.5%2.0
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.5%2.0
8. Davis Schneider (R)21.4%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)22.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-127-104
We project 4.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.4%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)23.3%3.0
2. Jasson Domínguez (L)19.8%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)23.1%3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)24.1%2.2
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)18.8%2.0
6. Spencer Jones (L)22.5%2.0
7. Anthony Volpe (R)22.0%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)20.7%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)18.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+119-159
We project 4.1 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.3 BF
Expected batters faced18.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)23.0%2.3
2. Luis García Jr. (L)24.3%2.0
3. José Tena (L)22.3%2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)22.9%2.0
5. Keibert Ruiz (L)23.0%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)23.6%2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.4%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)21.4%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)21.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+112-149
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 4.3 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)20.8%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)24.1%3.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)22.0%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.8%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.4%2.3
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.3%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)22.7%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)22.5%2.0
9. Elias Díaz (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+117-156
We project 5.4 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.7%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)22.9%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)21.7%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)21.4%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.3%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)18.9%3.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)21.7%2.5
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.7%2.0
8. Matt McLain (R)19.4%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-110
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-127-105
We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.3%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)21.8%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)21.0%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)20.9%3.0
6. Matt Shaw (R)23.4%2.4
7. Nico Hoerner (R)19.4%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)21.6%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)17.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-149+112
FANFanatics-155+105
We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.7% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)22.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)21.4%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)27.5%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)24.5%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.2%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)21.6%2.1
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)18.8%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.5%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)24.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-151+113
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 5.5 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)25.8%3.0
2. Owen Caissie (L)19.3%3.0
3. Heriberto Hernández (R)23.4%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)21.8%3.0
5. Otto Lopez (R)25.8%2.3
6. Jakob Marsee (L)20.5%2.0
7. Connor Norby (R)21.8%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)22.5%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)21.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+120-160
We project 4.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.4 BF
Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.4%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)25.2%3.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)17.9%2.4
4. Riley Greene (L)23.9%2.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)19.3%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)21.2%2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.4%2.0
8. Colt Keith (L)23.9%2.0
9. Trei Cruz (L)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB18.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)24.3%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)24.3%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)24.2%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)23.5%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)20.6%3.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)21.1%2.8
7. Victor Caratini (L)23.2%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)21.7%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)22.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+115-152
We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)20.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.7%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)23.1%3.0
4. Samuel Basallo (L)22.2%3.0
5. Leody Taveras (L)21.9%3.0
6. Colton Cowser (L)21.1%2.1
7. Coby Mayo (R)17.0%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)20.5%2.0
9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)25.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+100-132
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 4.7 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.7%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)23.7%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)25.3%3.0
3. Chase Meidroth (R)27.1%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)22.1%3.0
5. Edgar Quero (R)20.0%3.0
6. Junior Perez (R)22.5%2.3
7. Sam Antonacci (L)17.9%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)22.4%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)19.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+106-141
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 5.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB18.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)25.5%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)23.6%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)21.0%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)21.0%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)24.8%3.0
6. Carlos Cortes (L)21.6%3.0
7. Lawrence Butler (L)21.5%2.2
8. Henry Bolte (R)24.7%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)21.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-122-109
We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.0%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.6 BF
Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Tucker (L)22.6%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)24.1%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)25.5%2.6
4. Mookie Betts (R)22.2%2.0
5. Max Muncy (L)22.9%2.0
6. Tommy Edman (L)21.6%2.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)22.5%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)22.9%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)19.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-159+120
We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)24.5%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)22.3%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)26.9%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)22.4%3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)22.5%2.7
6. Nolan Arenado (R)20.6%2.0
7. Ildemaro Vargas (R)22.6%2.0
8. Jordan Lawlar (R)22.3%2.0
9. LuJames Groover (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-130-102
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)27.6%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.4%3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)19.0%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)22.9%3.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)20.3%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)24.1%2.5
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)19.8%2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)22.0%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)20.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.2%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Rob Refsnyder (R)22.5%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (R)20.9%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.5%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)25.3%3.0
5. Dominic Canzone (L)22.2%2.5
6. Cole Young (L)22.3%2.0
7. Victor Robles (R)22.6%2.0
8. Colt Emerson (L)19.2%2.0
9. Weston Wilson (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-153+115
We project 5.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB25.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)21.7%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)22.5%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)25.3%3.0
4. Oswald Peraza (R)23.1%3.0
5. Christian Moore (R)22.8%2.8
6. Denzer Guzman (R)19.9%2.0
7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)21.9%2.0
8. Wade Meckler (L)18.9%2.0
9. Jose Siri (R)20.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+104-138
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 5.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate28.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB29.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection6.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)21.4%3.0
2. Nick Gonzales (R)23.3%3.0
3. Ryan O'Hearn (L)24.4%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.4%3.0
5. Brandon Lowe (L)18.5%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (R)22.5%2.7
7. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.5%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)24.1%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-127-104
FANFanatics-145+100
We project 6.3 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
29 with a HLive count — updates as games play
1
Connor PrielippP
MIN@AZ· proj #26
9HFinal
2
Michael McGreevyP
STL@KC· proj #9
8HFinal
T2
Randy VásquezP
SD@TEX· proj #15
8HFinal
4
Kevin GausmanP
TOR@CHC· proj #17
7HFinal
T4
Landen RouppP
SF@MIA· proj #19
7HFinal
T4
Tarik SkubalP
DETvsCWS· proj #23
7HFinal
T4
Trey GibsonP
BAL@LAD· proj #25
7HFinal
8
Tatsuya ImaiP
HOUvsCLE· proj #3
6HFinal
T8
Bubba ChandlerP
PIT@COL· proj #5
6HFinal
T8
Jacob deGromP
TEXvsSD· proj #7
6HFinal
T8
Martín PérezP
ATLvsMIL· proj #11
6HFinal
T8
Rhett LowderP
CIN@NYY· proj #13
6HFinal
T8
José SorianoP
LAA@ATH· proj #24
6HFinal
14
Jacob MisiorowskiP
MIL@ATL· proj #10
5HFinal
T14
Seth LugoP
KCvsSTL· proj #18
5HFinal
16
Tanner BibeeP
CLE@HOU· proj #8
4HFinal
T16
Ben BrownP
CHCvsTOR· proj #12
4HFinal
T16
Griffin JaxP
TBvsWSH· proj #14
4HFinal
T16
Cam SchlittlerP
NYYvsCIN· proj #16
4HFinal
T16
Erick FeddeP
CWS@DET· proj #20
4HFinal
T16
Roki SasakiP
LADvsBAL· proj #22
4HFinal
T16
Jeffrey SpringsP
ATHvsLAA· proj #29
4HFinal
T16
Kyle FreelandP
COLvsPIT· proj #30
4HFinal
24
Bryce MillerP
SEAvsBOS· proj #2
3HFinal
T24
Lake BacharP
MIAvsSF· proj #6
3HFinal
26
Brandon EisertP
CWS@DET· proj #4
2HFinal
T26
Michael SorokaP
AZvsMIN· proj #21
2HFinal
28
PJ PoulinP
WSH@TB· proj #1
1HFinal
T28
Ranger SuarezP
BOS@SEA· proj #28
1HFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
1/333%
season 33%-45% ROI
Top 10
4/850%
season 50%-12% ROI
Top 20
7/1741%
season building
Top 50
11/2642%
season building
Full slate
11/2642%
season 50%-8 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026
PJ Poulin (WSH) is the top hits allowed spot on the Friday, June 19, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.0 H, with Bryce Miller (SEA) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: PJ Poulin
PJ Poulin (WSH) tops the Friday, June 19, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.0 H vs TB. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Bryce Miller (SEA) (100) — about 4.0 H vs BOS.
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) (99) — about 4.2 H vs CLE.
Brandon Eisert (CWS) (99) — about 2.0 H vs DET.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) (98) — about 4.2 H vs COL.
Lake Bachar (MIA) (92) — about 2.4 H vs SF.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 4.4 H. PJ Poulin finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the hits allowed board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Friday, June 19, 2026)?
PJ Poulin (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.0 H against TB.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Friday, June 19, 2026: PJ Poulin (~2.0 H), Bryce Miller (~4.0 H), Tatsuya Imai (~4.2 H), Brandon Eisert (~2.0 H), Bubba Chandler (~4.2 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
