‹ Runs · Sunday, June 21, 2026
TOR @ CHC Runs matchups · Sunday, June 21, 2026
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
vs
2:20 PM EDT
CHC
Chicago Cubs
◆ Wrigley FieldElevation 595 ftCenter Field 400 ft
TOR Lineup
◷
Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from TOR's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).
Hits / BF vs LH Batters
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11817 BF
Season.15199 BF
Last 2 Years.123317 BF
wOBA allowed.307
Hard-Hit %41%
Hits / BF vs RH Batters
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10448 BF
Season.108250 BF
Last 2 Years.110991 BF
wOBA allowed.301
Hard-Hit %30%
Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.
Order · HitterMatchup
Context
Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.097
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04522 PA
Season.07567 PA
Last 2 Years.112296 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 16@ BOS1
Jun 17@ BOS0
Jun 18@ BOS0
Jun 19@ CHC1
Jun 20@ CHC1
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.110
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10448 PA
Season.108250 PA
Last 2 Years.110991 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.140
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.170171 PA
Season.126833 PA
Last 2 Years.1173546 PA
Quality of Contact vs LHP
wOBA.340
Hard-Hit %37%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head2-for-3
Runs0 in 3 PA
Career Average.667
Plate Appearances3
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0
Projection
Projected Runs0.506
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.092
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00018 PA
Season.04323 PA
Last 2 Years.10090 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 16@ BOS0
Jun 17@ BOS0
Jun 18@ BOS1
Jun 19@ CHC0
Jun 20@ CHC0
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.126
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11817 PA
Season.15199 PA
Last 2 Years.123317 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.101
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.092227 PA
Season.099953 PA
Last 2 Years.1153409 PA
Quality of Contact vs LHP
wOBA.291
Hard-Hit %27%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs LHB
wOBA Allowed.300
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head
No Prior Matchups—
Projection
Projected Runs0.475
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.135
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05618 PA
Season.21470 PA
Last 2 Years.166307 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 16@ BOS0
Jun 17@ BOS0
Jun 18@ BOS1
Jun 19@ CHC0
Jun 20@ CHC2
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.110
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10448 PA
Season.108250 PA
Last 2 Years.110991 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.140
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.170171 PA
Season.126833 PA
Last 2 Years.1173546 PA
Quality of Contact vs LHP
wOBA.335
Hard-Hit %34%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head0-for-1
Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 1
Projection
Projected Runs0.568
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 5-game hitting streak
Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.098
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0008 PA
Season.06844 PA
Last 2 Years.06844 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 9vs PHI0
Jun 10vs PHI0
Jun 13vs NYY0
Jun 18@ BOS0
Jun 20@ CHC0
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.110
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10448 PA
Season.108250 PA
Last 2 Years.110991 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.140
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.170171 PA
Season.126833 PA
Last 2 Years.1173546 PA
Quality of Contact vs LHP
wOBA.322
Hard-Hit %36%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head
No Prior Matchups—
Projection
Projected Runs0.472
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.114
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11118 PA
Season.10874 PA
Last 2 Years.10874 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 16@ BOS1
Jun 17@ BOS0
Jun 18@ BOS1
Jun 19@ CHC0
Jun 20@ CHC2
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.110
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10448 PA
Season.108250 PA
Last 2 Years.110991 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.140
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.170171 PA
Season.126833 PA
Last 2 Years.1173546 PA
Quality of Contact vs LHP
wOBA.316
Hard-Hit %36%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head
No Prior Matchups—
Projection
Projected Runs0.494
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2.5× / ~1.6×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.109
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks——
Season.09861 PA
Last 2 Years.113168 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
May 31@ BAL0
Jun 2@ ATL0
Jun 3@ ATL0
Jun 5vs BAL0
Jun 20@ CHC1
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.126
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11817 PA
Season.15199 PA
Last 2 Years.123317 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.101
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.092227 PA
Season.099953 PA
Last 2 Years.1153409 PA
Quality of Contact vs LHP
wOBA.327
Hard-Hit %30%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs LHB
wOBA Allowed.300
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head
No Prior Matchups—
Projection
Projected Runs0.461
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.132
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.2867 PA
Season.14057 PA
Last 2 Years.121257 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 14vs NYY1
Jun 16@ BOS1
Jun 17@ BOS1
Jun 19@ CHC0
Jun 20@ CHC0
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.110
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10448 PA
Season.108250 PA
Last 2 Years.110991 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.140
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.170171 PA
Season.126833 PA
Last 2 Years.1173546 PA
Quality of Contact vs LHP
wOBA.317
Hard-Hit %32%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head0-for-2
Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0
Projection
Projected Runs0.515
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.123
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.26715 PA
Season.08868 PA
Last 2 Years.071240 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 16@ BOS2
Jun 17@ BOS2
Jun 18@ BOS0
Jun 19@ CHC1
Jun 20@ CHC0
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.126
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11817 PA
Season.15199 PA
Last 2 Years.123317 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.101
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.092227 PA
Season.099953 PA
Last 2 Years.1153409 PA
Quality of Contact vs LHP
wOBA.313
Hard-Hit %33%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs LHB
wOBA Allowed.300
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head0-for-2
Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0
Projection
Projected Runs0.461
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.102
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05618 PA
Season.09078 PA
Last 2 Years.107225 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 12vs NYY0
Jun 14vs NYY0
Jun 16@ BOS1
Jun 17@ BOS0
Jun 20@ CHC1
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.110
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10448 PA
Season.108250 PA
Last 2 Years.110991 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.140
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.170171 PA
Season.126833 PA
Last 2 Years.1173546 PA
Quality of Contact vs LHP
wOBA.309
Hard-Hit %32%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head
No Prior Matchups—
Projection
Projected Runs0.43
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
CHC Lineup
◷
Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from CHC's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).
Hits / BF vs LH Batters
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04224 BF
Season.105172 BF
Last 2 Years.110737 BF
wOBA allowed.293
Hard-Hit %28%
Hits / BF vs RH Batters
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 BF
Season.053131 BF
Last 2 Years.106696 BF
wOBA allowed.250
Hard-Hit %33%
Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.
Order · HitterMatchup
Context
Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 10-game hitting streak
Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.156
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.20848 PA
Season.157216 PA
Last 2 Years.153906 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 15vs COL1
Jun 16vs COL1
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 19vs TOR1
Jun 20vs TOR1
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.101
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04224 PA
Season.105172 PA
Last 2 Years.110737 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.083205 PA
Season.1071082 PA
Last 2 Years.1073243 PA
Quality of Contact vs RHP
wOBA.408
Hard-Hit %44%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs LHB
wOBA Allowed.297
Hard-Hit % Allowed30%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head2-for-4
Runs0 in 5 PA
Career Average.400
Plate Appearances5
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1
Projection
Projected Runs0.595
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.077
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00042 PA
Season.071240 PA
Last 2 Years.1171028 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 15vs COL0
Jun 16vs COL0
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 19vs TOR1
Jun 20vs TOR0
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.082
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 PA
Season.053131 PA
Last 2 Years.106696 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.144181 PA
Season.1131044 PA
Last 2 Years.1144026 PA
Quality of Contact vs RHP
wOBA.262
Hard-Hit %29%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.283
Hard-Hit % Allowed32%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head2-for-9
Runs0 in 13 PA
Career Average.154
Plate Appearances13
HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 3
Projection
Projected Runs0.395
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.129
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.16237 PA
Season.123187 PA
Last 2 Years.125952 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 15vs COL1
Jun 16vs COL0
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 19vs TOR2
Jun 20vs TOR0
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.082
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 PA
Season.053131 PA
Last 2 Years.106696 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.144181 PA
Season.1131044 PA
Last 2 Years.1144026 PA
Quality of Contact vs RHP
wOBA.349
Hard-Hit %40%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.283
Hard-Hit % Allowed32%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head0-for-3
Runs0 in 3 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances3
HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0
Projection
Projected Runs0.502
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.111
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.09841 PA
Season.106227 PA
Last 2 Years.126984 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 15vs COL0
Jun 16vs COL0
Jun 17vs COL0
Jun 19vs TOR0
Jun 20vs TOR0
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.101
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04224 PA
Season.105172 PA
Last 2 Years.110737 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.083205 PA
Season.1071082 PA
Last 2 Years.1073243 PA
Quality of Contact vs RHP
wOBA.340
Hard-Hit %40%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs LHB
wOBA Allowed.297
Hard-Hit % Allowed30%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head2-for-8
Runs0 in 9 PA
Career Average.222
Plate Appearances9
HR · K · BB2 · 4 · 1
Projection
Projected Runs0.458
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.107
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.08945 PA
Season.100250 PA
Last 2 Years.128867 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 15vs COL0
Jun 16vs COL0
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 19vs TOR1
Jun 20vs TOR1
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.082
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 PA
Season.053131 PA
Last 2 Years.106696 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.144181 PA
Season.1131044 PA
Last 2 Years.1144026 PA
Quality of Contact vs RHP
wOBA.318
Hard-Hit %32%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.283
Hard-Hit % Allowed32%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head3-for-15
Runs0 in 15 PA
Career Average.200
Plate Appearances15
HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 0
Projection
Projected Runs0.429
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2.6× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.141
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.15040 PA
Season.160225 PA
Last 2 Years.148986 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 15vs COL1
Jun 16vs COL0
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 19vs TOR3
Jun 20vs TOR1
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.101
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04224 PA
Season.105172 PA
Last 2 Years.110737 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.099
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.083205 PA
Season.1071082 PA
Last 2 Years.1073243 PA
Quality of Contact vs RHP
wOBA.344
Hard-Hit %38%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs LHB
wOBA Allowed.297
Hard-Hit % Allowed30%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head1-for-21
Runs0 in 24 PA
Career Average.042
Plate Appearances24
HR · K · BB0 · 10 · 3
Projection
Projected Runs0.494
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.118
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.18211 PA
Season.09563 PA
Last 2 Years.115390 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 15vs COL1
Jun 16vs COL1
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 19vs TOR2
Jun 20vs TOR1
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.082
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 PA
Season.053131 PA
Last 2 Years.106696 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.144181 PA
Season.1131044 PA
Last 2 Years.1144026 PA
Quality of Contact vs RHP
wOBA.331
Hard-Hit %28%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.283
Hard-Hit % Allowed32%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head1-for-2
Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.500
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0
Projection
Projected Runs0.444
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.106
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00011 PA
Season.11578 PA
Last 2 Years.113309 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 5vs SF0
Jun 9@ COL0
Jun 13@ SF0
Jun 16vs COL0
Jun 20vs TOR1
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.082
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 PA
Season.053131 PA
Last 2 Years.106696 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.144181 PA
Season.1131044 PA
Last 2 Years.1144026 PA
Quality of Contact vs RHP
wOBA.340
Hard-Hit %33%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.283
Hard-Hit % Allowed32%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head1-for-4
Runs0 in 4 PA
Career Average.250
Plate Appearances4
HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0
Projection
Projected Runs0.407
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.
Context
Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.120
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.09133 PA
Season.142190 PA
Last 2 Years.125975 PA
Last 5 GamesRuns
Jun 15vs COL0
Jun 16vs COL0
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 19vs TOR2
Jun 20vs TOR1
Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.082
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 PA
Season.053131 PA
Last 2 Years.106696 PA
Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.126
WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.144181 PA
Season.1131044 PA
Last 2 Years.1144026 PA
Quality of Contact vs RHP
wOBA.281
Hard-Hit %30%
How well he's squaring up the ball.
Starter Allows · vs RHB
wOBA Allowed.283
Hard-Hit % Allowed32%
How hard hitters are squaring him up.
Head-to-Head0-for-5
Runs0 in 5 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances5
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0
Projection
Projected Runs0.423
A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.