Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top runs spot: Willi Castro
Willi Castro (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The lefty is scoring at .139 R/PA against righties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Jared Jones has been getting lit up by righties lately — .233 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Jared Jones, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (99) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an elite bat at .188 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.194).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (98) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233), hitter's park, hot bat.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (94) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233), hitter's park.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (93) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) (91) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .142 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (87) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (86) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
Platoon edges to target
- Willi Castro (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .212 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .131 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.