Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Sean Burke. The lefty is running at .093 SB/PA against righties this year — and .188 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 8% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Sean Burke. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (93) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: an elite bat at .070.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (72) vs LHP Sean Manaea: an elite bat at .051.
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) (60) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an elite bat at .046.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (56) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a high-volume bat at .043.
- José Caballero (NYY) (45) vs RHP Sean Burke: a high-volume bat at .041.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) (42) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a high-volume bat at .040.
- Jorge Mateo (ATL) (41) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a high-volume bat at .039, due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .093 against righties this year.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .158 against lefties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .095 against lefties this year.
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- Leody Taveras (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 stolen bases matchups landed at least one stolen base. Top play Jazz Chisholm Jr. finished with 0 stolen bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.