Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Top total bases spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is racking up bases at .431 TB/PA against righties this year — and .886 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 52% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been giving up bases to righties lately — .375 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (80) vs RHP Mitch Spence: a strong bat at .460 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Troy Melton: an excellent bat at .502 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.531), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (76) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .457 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.474), hot bat.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (74) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .427 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.708).
- James Wood (WSH) (73) vs RHP Mitch Spence: a solid bat at .409 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
- Wade Meckler (LAA) (73) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: a strong bat at .435 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.689), due to bounce back.
- Ian Happ (CHC) (71) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .436 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.375).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Ryne Nelson has been getting squared up by righties — .458 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .449 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Ian Happ (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).
- RHP Mitch Spence has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- RHP Nick Martinez has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .442 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .529 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .429 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .453 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.