Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, May 20, 2026
Top hits spot: Justin Foscue
Justin Foscue (TEX) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is hitting .571 H/PA against lefties this year — and .571 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .389 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (92) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.276).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (86) vs LHP Chris Sale: an elite bat at .334 into an arm tough on the same side (.143).
- Alejandro Osuna (TEX) (81) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .234 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Carson Benge (NYM) (81) vs RHP Zack Littell: a strong bat at .269 into an arm tough on the same side (.143).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (81) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .226 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), hitter's park.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (80) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a strong bat at .255 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (80) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at .254 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Dominic Smith (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Justin Foscue (TEX), Alejandro Osuna (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
- RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Adam Frazier (LAA), and Zach Neto (LAA).
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Yohel Pozo (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Justin Foscue (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .571 against lefties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .456 against lefties this year.
- Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .235 against righties this year.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Justin Foscue (TEX) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Trea Turner (PHI), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Juan Soto (NYM), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Willy Adames (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Alejandro Osuna (TEX), Dominic Smith (ATL), Luis García Jr. (WSH), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Jesus Rodriguez (SF).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Justin Foscue finished with 3 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.