Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026
Top hits spot: Carson Benge
Carson Benge (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cade Cavalli. The lefty is hitting .237 H/PA against righties this year — and .364 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Cade Cavalli has been mostly holding up against righties lately — .231 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Cade Cavalli, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willi Castro (COL) (93) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: a strong bat at .259 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.243), due to bounce back.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (91) vs RHP Zach Agnos: a solid bat at .237 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (86) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.294).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (83) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: a strong bat at .261 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.243), due to bounce back.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (81) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .255 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.231), hot bat.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (81) vs RHP Luis Severino: a strong bat at .254 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.345).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (80) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .267 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Luis Severino has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Josh Lowe (LAA).
- RHP Cade Cavalli has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Brett Baty (NYM).
- LHP David Peterson has been giving up plenty to lefties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Curtis Mead (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Jorbit Vivas (WSH).
Platoon edges to target
- Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .203 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .308 against righties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .226 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Carson Benge (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), Alec Burleson (STL), Corbin Carroll (AZ), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Daulton Varsho (TOR). Cold but due to bounce back: Willi Castro (COL), Hunter Goodman (COL), Shea Langeliers (ATH), Aaron Judge (NYY), and Kyle Karros (COL).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Carson Benge finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.